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With Expectations of a U.K. Rate Hike Dimming, Can the Pound-Dollar Exchange Rate Recover to 1.36?

Market Report

With Expectations of a U.K. Rate Hike Fading, Can GBP/USD Recover to $1.36?

28.08.2026 New

Today's Highlights
  1. Canada's GDP for April–June
  2. Remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. dollar lacked direction despite the number of new jobless claims coming in lower than market expectations. The number of claims for the previous week came in at 203,000, falling short of the market forecast of 208,000 and the previously revised figure of 207,000.The Dollar Index rose slightly to around 99.18 during New York trading hours, while the dollar-yen pair traded within a range of about 0.43 yen, between 159.11 and 159.54 yen, before closing near 159.32 yen.While the 159.50-yen level is seen as resistance, we will need to assess whether the range from 159.10 yen to the key 159.00-yen level will act as support.

European currencies fell as expectations for a Bank of England rate hike this year faded, causing the pound to decline against the U.S. dollar. The rate hike expected by the market by December stood at approximately 24.7 basis points, falling to a level that does not fully price in a 25-basis-point hike.The pound traded within a range of about 33 pips, between $1.3570 and $1.3603. After briefly hitting its lowest level in about a week, it closed near $1.3592.The key level around $1.3600 is likely to act as resistance, while the level around $1.3570 is expected to serve as support.

Today’s economic indicators include the release of France’s preliminary August Consumer Price Index at 3:45 p.m., with forecasts of a 0.7% month-over-month increase and a 2.4% year-over-year increase.At 21:30, Canada’s GDP for the April–June quarter and June GDP will be released; quarterly GDP is expected to be 3.4% annualized quarter-over-quarter, and June GDP is expected to be 0.2% month-over-month.At 10:45 PM, the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August is scheduled to be released, followed at 11:00 PM by remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Warsh and the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August. Keep an eye on how the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar react to the Canadian GDP data and Chair Warsh’s remarks.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

Previous Article

Will the Dollar's Strength Following the U.S. PCE Report Continue on the Back of Employment Data?
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