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Will the Dollar-Yen Pair, Weighed Down by U.S. Fiscal Concerns, Be Able to Reclaim the 159-Yen Level?

Market Report

Will the Dollar-Yen Pair, Weighed Down by U.S. Fiscal Concerns, Recover to the 159-Yen Level?

Today's Highlights
  1. Singapore July Consumer Price Index
  2. Final GDP Figures for Mexico, April–June

On the 21st, the U.S. dollar faced resistance amid concerns over the U.S. Treasury’s expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated the possibility of further expanding the buybacks of long-term Treasuries, which are set to double to at least $4 billion per transaction.The preliminary August U.S. Services PMI came in at 56.8, exceeding market expectations of 54.0 and the previous reading of 54.6, but this failed to sustain buying interest in the U.S. dollar.The USD/JPY pair fell from around 159.14 yen to around 158.35 yen before closing in the 158.90 yen range. The trading range for the previous business day was approximately 0.79 yen.The 159.00–159.15 yen range is likely to act as resistance, while the 158.35 yen level is expected to serve as support.

European currencies rose as the euro was bought on the back of improved business sentiment in the eurozone. The preliminary August eurozone composite PMI came in at 52.1, exceeding both the previous reading of 52.0 and the market forecast of 51.7.The preliminary manufacturing PMI also came in at 52.8, exceeding both the previous reading of 51.9 and market expectations of 51.8.The euro traded against the dollar within a range of approximately 43 pips, between $1.1669 and $1.1712. After briefly hitting a high not seen in about three months, it closed near $1.1679.The $1.1710 level is likely to act as resistance, while the $1.1670 level is likely to act as support.

In today’s economic data, New Zealand’s retail sales for the April–June quarter, released at 7:45 a.m., came in at -0.5% quarter-over-quarter, falling short of market expectations.Singapore’s Consumer Price Index for July, released at 14:00, came in at 2.2% year-over-year, falling short of market expectations but showing an acceleration from the previous reading of 1.9%.Looking ahead, Mexico’s final April–June GDP figures will be released at 9:00 p.m., with forecasts of 1.5% quarter-over-quarter and 2.2% year-over-year. With limited major economic indicators from the U.S. and Europe, attention will focus on whether trends in the U.S. Treasury market will influence the direction of the U.S. dollar.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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