Ahead of the FOMC Minutes, Will the Dollar-Yen Pair Test the 159-Yen Level?

Ahead of the FOMC Minutes, Will the Dollar-Yen Pair Test the 159-Yen Level?

19.08.2026 New

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the dollar found support as inflation concerns came into focus amid tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices. As U.S. long-term interest rates rose, buyers stepped in to buy the dollar, causing the dollar index to rise slightly.On the other hand, expectations for a September rate hike have receded in light of recent weak employment and retail sales data, limiting the upside for the U.S. dollar. The dollar/yen pair traded within a range of 159.30 to 159.79 yen, closing the previous day around 159.56 yen. The previous day’s trading range was approximately 49 sen.Today, the pair is trading in the low 159-yen range, with resistance expected around 159.80–160.00 yen and support around 159.20–159.30 yen.

European currencies saw the pound fall slightly against the U.S. dollar as signs of a slowdown emerged in the U.K. labor market. The U.K. unemployment rate came in at 4.9%, exceeding market expectations of 4.8%, while private-sector wage growth also hit its lowest level since 2020, rising 2.8% year-over-year.The number of job vacancies also fell to 707,000, reinforcing the view that the Bank of England (BOE) has little urgency to raise interest rates further. The pound traded within a range of $1.3518 to $1.3563 against the dollar and closed near $1.3537.The previous day’s trading range was approximately 45 pips. Today, the pair has rebounded to around $1.3550, with resistance likely around $1.3560 and support likely in the $1.3520–$1.3530 range.

Today’s key events include ECB President Lagarde participating in a discussion on the global economic outlook at 4:10 p.m. At 6:00 p.m., the revised July Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the eurozone will be released; the year-over-year rate is expected to be 2.9%, with the core index at 2.5%.At 27:00, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on July 28–29 will be released. At that meeting, while the policy rate was held steady at 3.50–3.75%, three members advocated for a 0.25-point rate hike.With expectations for U.S. rate hikes currently waning, we will be watching to see if the minutes reveal any changes in committee members’ views on inflation and future policy rates, and whether this leads to a shift in the direction of the dollar-yen exchange rate.