Ahead of the ECB meeting, the dollar-yen pair is likely to see nervous trading around the 163-yen level
23.07.2026
- European Central Bank (ECB) Policy Rate
- U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims for the Previous Week
In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. dollar remained at elevated levels against the yen amid concerns over rising crude oil prices—driven by the situation in the Middle East—and rising U.S. interest rates. However, after the dollar-yen pair broke into the 163-yen range, lingering concerns about potential currency intervention by Japanese authorities prevented the pair from rising unilaterally.In the Tokyo market the previous day, the USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 162.67 to 163.22 yen, and at 17:00, it stood between 162.93 and 162.95 yen.The focus now is on whether the pair can hold around 163.00, with resistance likely around 163.20 to 163.50 and support around 162.50 to 162.00.Today, the U.S. is scheduled to release last week’s initial jobless claims data, and we will be watching to see how U.S. interest rates and the U.S. dollar react to the employment figures.
Ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) announcement of its policy interest rate, the euro held steady against the U.S. dollar.While the market expects the policy rate to remain unchanged at 2.40%, concerns about a resurgence of inflation driven by high oil prices mean that attention is focused on the extent to which ECB President Lagarde will signal the bank’s future policy stance during her regular press conference.The euro-dollar pair traded within a range of 1.1399 to 1.1415 in the Tokyo market the previous day, and stood at 1.1408 to 1.1410 as of 5:00 p.m.Since then, ahead of the ECB meeting, the pair has been trading in the low 1.14 range, with resistance likely around 1.1450 to 1.1500 and support around 1.1400 to 1.1380.Today, following the ECB’s policy rate decision and remarks by President Lagarde, we will be watching to see if the euro can hold onto the 1.14 level.
Today’s key economic indicators include the Turkish Central Bank’s policy rate at 8:00 p.m., the European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate at 9:15 p.m., U.S. initial jobless claims for the previous week at 9:30 p.m., and Canada’s May retail sales,ECB President Lagarde’s regular press conference at 21:45, the South African Reserve Bank’s policy rate at 22:00, and the preliminary July consumer confidence index for the eurozone at 23:00. In particular, from European trading hours through New York trading hours, the ECB meeting and U.S. employment-related indicators are likely to be key drivers.For USD/JPY, we expect trading around the 163 yen level, while for EUR/USD, we want to carefully assess the direction following the ECB announcement.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
