With U.S. Retail Sales Data Due, Can the Dollar-Yen Rate Hold Above the 162-Yen Level?

With U.S. Retail Sales Data on the Horizon, Can the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate Hold the 162-Yen Level?

16.07.2026 New

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. June Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.3% month-over-month, signaling a slowdown in inflation. As expectations for a U.S. interest rate hike receded somewhat, the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies and faced resistance against the yen.The USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 161.97 to 162.30 yen in the Tokyo session and was in the upper 162.20 range as of 5:00 p.m.Subsequently, following the release of the U.S. PPI, the pair was pushed down to the upper 161-yen range at times, and the immediate focus is likely to be on whether it can recover to around 162.00. On the upside, the 162.50 level is likely to be watched, while on the downside, the 161.50 to 161.00 range is likely to be a key focus.U.S. June retail sales and last week’s initial jobless claims are scheduled for release today, and we will be watching to see if there is any buying interest in the U.S. dollar.

European currencies were weighed down by concerns over the European economy after eurozone industrial production fell 0.2% month-on-month in May. However, the euro saw some buying against the dollar, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar following the lower-than-expected U.S. PPI reading.The euro-dollar pair traded within a range of 1.1420 to 1.1443 during the Tokyo session; after settling in the low 1.1420s at 17:00, it rose to the high 1.14s during New York trading hours.Resistance levels around 1.1480 to 1.1500 and support levels around 1.1430 to 1.1400 are likely to be closely watched, and the focus will likely be on whether the pair can hold above the upper 1.14 range. The eurozone’s May trade balance is scheduled for release today, and we will be watching to see if the euro’s rally continues.

Today’s economic indicators include the Eurozone’s May trade balance at 18:00, Canada’s June housing starts at 21:15, U.S. June retail sales at 21:30,U.S. initial jobless claims for the previous week, the U.S. July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the U.S. July NAHB Housing Market Index at 11:00 p.m., the U.S. June Pending Home Sales Index, and U.S. May Business Inventories.During New York trading hours in particular, U.S. retail sales and employment-related indicators tend to drive the market, so we will carefully monitor the reactions of the U.S. dollar, the yen, the euro, and the Canadian dollar.