With U.S. ADP and ISM Reports on the Horizon, the Dollar-Yen Pair May Test the 162-Yen Level

With U.S. ADP and ISM Reports on the Horizon, the Dollar-Yen Pair May Hover Around the 162-Yen Level

01.07.2026

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the May JOLTS job openings figure rose slightly from the previous month to 7.594 million, highlighting the resilience of the U.S. labor market.Meanwhile, although the U.S. June Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly to 91.2 from the previous month’s revised figure, it fell short of market expectations, leaving some analysts cautious about the recovery in consumer sentiment.The dollar-yen pair traded within a range of 161.91 to 162.41 yen in the Tokyo session, settling in the mid-162.20 yen range as of 5:00 PM. While the pair is currently trading above the key 162.00 level, caution regarding further yen weakness is likely to emerge around the 162.50 mark.On the downside, the focus will likely be on whether the area between 162.00 and 161.50 will act as a support zone. Today’s schedule includes the U.S. June ADP Employment Report, the U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI, and remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Warsh; we will be watching to see if the trend of a stronger U.S. dollar and a weaker yen continues.

European currencies were influenced by the view that inflationary pressures in the eurozone were easing, as Germany’s June inflation rate slowed to 2.4% year-on-year from 2.7% the previous month, and France’s inflation rate also fell to 2.0%.Meanwhile, the strengthening U.S. dollar weighed on the euro, and the EUR/USD pair traded with limited upside potential in the upper 1.13 range. In the Tokyo session, the pair traded within a range of 1.1383 to 1.1423, settling in the upper 1.1390 range as of 5:00 p.m.Resistance levels around 1.1420 to 1.1450 and support levels around 1.1380 to 1.1350 are likely to be closely watched, and the immediate focus will be on whether the pair can recover to the 1.1400 level.With the release of the eurozone’s June Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP, preliminary reading) and remarks by ECB President Lagarde scheduled for today, we will be watching to see if the euro’s rally continues.

Today’s economic indicators include Switzerland’s May real retail sales at 15:30, France’s revised June manufacturing PMI at 16:50, Germany’s revised June manufacturing PMI at 16:55, the eurozone’s revised June manufacturing PMI at 17:00,the UK’s revised June Manufacturing PMI at 17:30, the Eurozone’s June Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP, flash estimate) and core HICP at 18:00, the U.S. June Challenger job cuts at 18:30, the U.S. June ADP Employment Report at 21:15,22:00: Remarks by Fed Chair Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, and BOE Governor Bailey; 22:45: U.S. June Manufacturing PMI Revised Figure; 23:00: U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI and May Construction Spending will be the main focus.In particular, the Eurozone HICP during European trading hours and the U.S. ADP Employment Report and ISM Manufacturing PMI during New York trading hours are likely to be key drivers, so we will carefully assess the directional trends for the U.S. dollar, the yen, the euro, and the pound.