With U.S. ADP and ISM data on the horizon, the dollar-yen pair may test the 162-yen level

With U.S. ADP and ISM data on the horizon, the dollar-yen pair may test the 162-yen level

01.07.2026 New

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the May JOLTS job openings figure rose slightly from the previous month to 7.594 million, highlighting the resilience of the U.S. labor market.Meanwhile, although the U.S. June Consumer Confidence Index rose slightly to 91.2 from the revised previous month’s figure, it fell short of market expectations, leaving some observers cautious about the recovery in consumer sentiment.The USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 161.91 to 162.41 yen in the Tokyo session and stood in the mid-162.20 yen range as of 17:00. While the pair is currently trading above the key 162.00 level, caution regarding further yen weakness is likely to emerge around the 162.50 level.On the downside, the focus will likely be on whether the area between 162.00 and 161.50 will act as a support zone. Today’s schedule includes the U.S. June ADP Employment Report, the U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI, and remarks by Fed Chair Warsh; we will be watching to see if the trend of a stronger U.S. dollar and a weaker yen continues.

European currencies were supported by market expectations that inflationary pressures in the eurozone would ease, as Germany’s June inflation rate slowed to 2.4% year-on-year from 2.7% the previous month, and France’s inflation rate also fell to 2.0%.Meanwhile, the strengthening U.S. dollar weighed on the euro, and the EUR/USD pair traded with limited upside potential in the upper 1.13 range. In the Tokyo session, the pair traded within a range of 1.1383 to 1.1423, settling in the upper 1.1390 range as of 17:00.Resistance is likely to be found around 1.1420 to 1.1450, while support is likely to be around 1.1380 to 1.1350; the immediate focus will be on whether the pair can recover to the 1.1400 level.With the release of the eurozone’s June Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP, preliminary reading) and remarks by ECB President Lagarde scheduled for today, we will be watching to see if the euro’s rally continues.

Today’s economic indicators include Switzerland’s May real retail sales at 15:30, France’s revised June manufacturing PMI at 16:50, Germany’s revised June manufacturing PMI at 16:55, the eurozone’s revised June manufacturing PMI at 17:00,17:30 UK June Manufacturing PMI (revised), 18:00 Eurozone June Consumer Price Index (HICP, flash estimate) and Core HICP, 18:30 US June Challenger Layoffs, 21:15 US June ADP Employment Report,22:00: Remarks by Fed Chair Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, and BOE Governor Bailey; 22:45: U.S. June Manufacturing PMI Revised Figure; 23:00: U.S. June ISM Manufacturing PMI and May Construction Spending will be the main focus.In particular, during European trading hours, the Eurozone HICP is likely to be a key driver, while during New York trading hours, the U.S. ADP Employment Report and the ISM Manufacturing PMI are likely to be key drivers; we will carefully assess the directional trends for the U.S. dollar, the yen, the euro, and the pound.