Market Participants May Look for Direction Based on Canada’s CPI and the ECB President’s Remarks
22.06.2026
- Canada's May Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- Remarks by Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (ECB)
On the 19th, the Canadian dollar traded against the U.S. dollar as market participants remained cautious about Canadian consumer spending, given that while Canada’s April retail sales rose 0.5% month-over-month, core retail sales—excluding gas stations and auto-related sales—declined.The Canadian dollar came under selling pressure against the U.S. dollar, with USDCAD briefly rising to the 1.4180 level, and the Canadian dollar traded near a 14-month low.Currently, the 1.4200 level is likely to act as resistance, while on the downside, the focus will be on whether the pair can hold the 1.4100 to 1.4050 range.Canada’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release today. We will be watching to see if the results exceed expectations—which are for a 0.8% month-over-month increase and a 3.0% year-over-year increase—as this could trigger a buyback of the Canadian dollar, or if they fall short, leading to selling pressure on the Canadian dollar and upward pressure on the USDCAD pair.
European currencies saw the pound recover against the dollar at times, as the UK’s May retail sales rose 1.2% month-over-month—exceeding market expectations—and highlighting the resilience of consumer spending.However, upside was limited by the Bank of England’s (BOE) cautious policy stance following its meeting the previous week and the strength of the U.S. dollar after the FOMC meeting. Although the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the low 1.3200s to the 1.3230s, profit-taking is likely to emerge around the 1.3300 level.On the downside, the focus will likely be on whether the 1.3200 to 1.3150 range holds as a support zone. Today, remarks by European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde and the preliminary June consumer confidence index for the eurozone are scheduled, and we will be looking to gauge the direction of the euro and the pound against the dollar.
Today’s key economic indicators include Canada’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 21:30, remarks by European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde at 22:00, and the preliminary June Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index at 23:00.Since there are few major economic indicators in the U.S. this week, we will carefully assess not only the sustainability of the U.S. dollar’s strength—which has continued since last week—but also the Canadian dollar’s reaction to the Canadian CPI and the euro’s reaction to the ECB President’s remarks and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
