Markets May Seek Direction Based on Canada’s CPI and the ECB President’s Remarks

Markets May Seek Direction Based on Canada’s CPI and the ECB President’s Remarks

22.06.2026

On the 19th, the Canadian dollar traded against the U.S. dollar as market participants remained cautious about Canadian consumer spending, given that while Canada’s April retail sales rose 0.5% month-over-month, core retail sales—excluding gas stations and auto-related sales—declined.The Canadian dollar came under selling pressure against the U.S. dollar, with the USDCAD pair briefly rising to the 1.4180 level, and the Canadian dollar traded near a 14-month low.Currently, the 1.4200 level is likely to act as resistance, while on the downside, the focus will be on whether the pair can hold the 1.4100 to 1.4050 range.Canada’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release today. We will be watching to see if the results come in above or below expectations—0.8% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year—as a miss above could trigger a buyback of the Canadian dollar, while a miss below could lead to selling of the Canadian dollar and upward pressure on USDCAD.

Among European currencies, the pound staged a brief recovery against the dollar as the UK’s May retail sales rose 1.2% month-over-month, exceeding market expectations, and highlighting the resilience of consumer spending.However, upside was limited by the Bank of England’s (BOE) cautious policy stance following its meeting last week and the strength of the U.S. dollar after the FOMC meeting. Although the GBP/USD pair rebounded from the low 1.3200s to the 1.3230s, profit-taking is likely to emerge around the 1.3300 level.On the downside, the focus will likely be on whether the 1.3200 to 1.3150 range will act as a support zone. Today, remarks by European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde and the preliminary June Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index are scheduled, and we will be looking to gauge the direction of the euro and the pound against the dollar.

Today’s key economic indicators include Canada’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 21:30, remarks by European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde at 22:00, and the preliminary June Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index at 23:00.Since there are few major economic indicators in the U.S., we will carefully assess not only the sustainability of the U.S. dollar’s strength, which has continued since last week, but also the Canadian dollar’s reaction to the Canadian CPI and the euro’s reaction to the ECB President’s remarks and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index.