With the FOMC Meeting Approaching, Attention Turns to the Direction of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate in the 160-Yen Range

With the FOMC Meeting Approaching, Attention Turns to the Direction of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate in the 160-Yen Range

17.06.2026

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the May housing starts figure came in at an annualized rate of 1.177 million, a significant decline from the revised previous month’s figure of 1.392 million, highlighting the weakness in the U.S. housing market.Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar struggled to gain ground, partly due to a wait-and-see stance ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and partly due to a decline in demand for safe-haven assets.The USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 160.05 to 160.35 yen in the Tokyo session and was in the low 160.20 yen range as of 5:00 p.m.While the pair is currently holding above the key 160.00 level, resistance is likely to be found in the 160.50 to 160.70 range. On the downside, the focus will likely be on whether the pair can hold above the 160.00 to 159.50 range.U.S. retail sales data and the FOMC policy rate announcement are scheduled for today, and we will be watching the U.S. dollar’s reaction following Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference.

European currencies found support as the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for June improved to 10.5 from the previous reading of -10.2, easing excessive pessimism regarding the eurozone economy. The euro held steady against the U.S. dollar, also supported by the fact that the dollar struggled to gain ground ahead of the FOMC meeting.In the Tokyo market, the pair fluctuated within a range of 1.1576 to 1.1595, trading in the upper 1.1590s as of 5:00 p.m.Currently, the pair is locked in a battle around the 1.1600 level, with resistance likely around 1.1620 to 1.1650 and support around 1.1580 to 1.1550.Today, the UK’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Eurozone’s May Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP, revised) are scheduled for release, and we will be watching for the euro and pound’s reaction during European trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include the UK’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI) at 3:00 p.m., the Eurozone’s May Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP, revised) at 6:00 p.m.,the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00, U.S. May Retail Sales and Retail Sales Excluding Autos at 21:30, the U.S. May Pending Home Sales Index and April Business Inventories at 23:00,the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy rate announcement at 27:00, and Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference at 27:30. In particular, since U.S. retail sales and the FOMC announcement overlap during New York trading hours, we will carefully assess whether a clear direction emerges for the U.S. dollar, the yen, the euro, and the pound.