Will the U.S. PPI and ECB Policy Meeting Push the Dollar-Yen Rate into the 160-yen Range?

Will the U.S. PPI and ECB Meeting Push the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate into the 160-yen Range?

11.06.2026

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the May U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 0.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, with the overall index highlighting strong inflationary pressures.On the other hand, the core CPI rose only 0.2% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, making it difficult for the U.S. dollar to see sustained buying momentum.The USD/JPY pair traded within a range of 160.25 to 160.43 yen in the Tokyo session and was in the upper 160.30s as of 5:00 PM. While the pair is currently trading above the key 160.00 level, resistance near 160.50 is likely to be a concern.On the downside, the focus will likely be on whether the area from 160.00 to around 159.50 will act as a support zone. Today’s schedule includes the U.S. May Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims; we will be watching to see if the direction of the dollar changes following the release of the U.S. CPI.

European currencies were supported by expectations of an interest rate hike ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meeting, with the euro holding steady against the dollar. The euro/dollar pair traded in a range of 1.1535 to 1.1558 during the Tokyo session and stood in the mid-1.1550s as of 5:00 p.m.While the pair is currently holding in the low 1.1500s, depending on the content of the statement following the ECB Governing Council meeting and ECB President Lagarde’s press conference, it may attempt a rebound toward 1.1600 or return to levels near 1.1500.On the upside, levels around 1.1580 to 1.1600 are likely to be watched, while on the downside, levels around 1.1530 to 1.1500 are likely to be in focus; we will monitor price movements following the start of European trading hours.

Today’s key economic indicators include South Africa’s current account balance for January–March at 6:00 p.m., the Turkish Central Bank’s policy rate at 8:00 p.m., the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy rate at 9:15 p.m.,the U.S. May Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI at 21:30, along with the U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing claims for the previous week, and ECB President Lagarde’s press conference at 21:45.In particular, during New York trading hours, the U.S. PPI release and the ECB Governing Council meeting will occur simultaneously, so we will need to carefully assess whether a clear direction emerges for the U.S. dollar, the yen, and the euro.