Watch for the dollar-yen exchange rate to settle in the 160-yen range following U.S. employment data
08.06.2026
- Japan's Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP, Revised) for January–March
- Germany: New Manufacturing Orders in April
In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. labor market’s resilience came into focus as the May nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000—significantly exceeding the forecast of 85,000—and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3%.Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year, and concerns over prolonged U.S. monetary tightening led to dollar buying. The dollar/yen pair traded in a range of 159.90 to 160.01 yen in the Tokyo market before rising to the low 160s following the U.S. employment report.The immediate focus is on whether the pair can hold the 160.00 level; on the upside, the 160.50 to 160.70 range is likely to act as resistance. On the downside, we will be watching to see if the 160.00 to 159.50 range holds as support.
European currencies came under pressure as the final reading for the eurozone’s Q1 GDP was revised down to a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter decline, highlighting the weakness of the regional economy. Furthermore, the strength of the U.S. dollar following robust U.S. employment data weighed on the market, causing the euro-dollar pair to trade with limited upside.In the Tokyo session, the pair fluctuated within a range of 1.1611 to 1.1635, but following dollar buying after the U.S. jobs report, it fell to the low 1.1500s at the start of the week.The immediate focus is on whether the EUR/USD pair can hold around 1.1500, with resistance likely around 1.1550 to 1.1600 and support around 1.1500 to 1.1480.Germany’s April manufacturing new orders, released today, came in at -3.8% month-on-month, and we will be watching to see if this confirms continued caution regarding the European economy.
Today’s key economic indicators include Japan’s revised real GDP for the January–March quarter and April balance of payments at 8:50 a.m., the Bank of Japan’s May Tankan survey at 2:00 p.m., and Germany’s April manufacturing new orders at 3:00 p.m.Among the results already released, Japan’s GDP grew 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (annualized 1.8%), while Germany’s new manufacturing orders declined month-on-month; we will be watching the euro’s reaction during European trading hours.With few major indicators coming out of the U.S., we will carefully assess whether the dollar’s strength—driven by last weekend’s strong U.S. jobs report—will continue, and whether the dollar/yen pair will settle in the 160-yen range and whether there is room for the euro/dollar pair to fall further.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
