Focus on whether the dollar-yen exchange rate will settle in the 160-yen range following U.S. employment data

Focus on whether the dollar-yen exchange rate will settle in the 160-yen range following U.S. employment data

08.06.2026

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. May nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000—significantly exceeding the forecast of 85,000—and the unemployment rate remained flat at 4.3%, highlighting the resilience of the U.S. labor market.Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, and concerns about prolonged U.S. monetary tightening led to dollar buying. The dollar/yen pair traded in a range of 159.90 to 160.01 yen in the Tokyo session before rising to the low 160s following the release of the U.S. employment report.The focus now is on whether the pair can hold the 160.00 psychological level; on the upside, the 160.50 to 160.70 range is likely to act as resistance. On the downside, we will be watching to see if the 160.00 to 159.50 range holds as a support zone.

European currencies came under pressure as the final figure for the eurozone’s January–March GDP was revised downward to -0.2% quarter-on-quarter, highlighting the weakness of the regional economy. Furthermore, the strength of the U.S. dollar—driven by strong U.S. employment data—weighed on the euro, causing the EUR/USD pair to trade with limited upside.In the Tokyo session, the pair fluctuated within a range of 1.1611 to 1.1635, but following dollar buying after the U.S. jobs report, it fell to the low 1.1500s at the start of the week.The immediate focus for the EUR/USD pair is whether it can hold around 1.1500, with resistance likely around 1.1550 to 1.1600 and support around 1.1500 to 1.1480.Germany’s April manufacturing new orders, released today, came in at -3.8% month-over-month, and we will be watching to see if cautious sentiment toward the European economy persists.

Today’s key economic indicators include Japan’s January–March real gross domestic product (GDP, revised) and April balance of payments at 08:50, the Japan May Economic Watchers Survey at 14:00, and Germany’s April new manufacturing orders at 15:00.Among the results already released, Japan’s GDP came in at 0.5% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% on an annualized basis, while Germany’s new manufacturing orders declined month-on-month; we will be watching for the euro’s reaction during European trading hours.Since key indicators are limited in the U.S., we will carefully assess whether the U.S. dollar’s strength—driven by last weekend’s strong U.S. employment report—will continue, and whether the dollar/yen pair will consolidate in the 160-yen range and whether there is downside potential for the euro/dollar pair.