With Canadian GDP and German CPI data on the horizon, the market may be looking to gauge the direction of the U.S. dollar

With Canadian GDP and German CPI data on the horizon, the market may be looking to gauge the direction of the U.S. dollar

29.05.2026

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the April PCE deflator posted a high year-over-year increase of 3.8%, while the revised GDP figure for the January–March quarter was downgraded to an annualized 1.6% quarter-over-quarter, resulting in a mixed picture of strength and weakness.The U.S. dollar remained firm amid concerns over persistently high inflation, but with concerns about an economic slowdown still lingering, the USD/JPY pair fluctuated within a range of 159.15 to around 159.65 before closing in the low 159-yen range.On the upside, the 159.60 to 160.00 range is likely to be seen as resistance, while on the downside, the focus will likely be on whether the pair can hold the 159.00 to 158.80 range.With U.S. April wholesale inventories and the May Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) scheduled for release today, we will be watching to see if the U.S. dollar’s resilience holds.

While the strength of the U.S. dollar weighed on European currencies, the euro struggled to find direction against the dollar ahead of key eurozone inflation data.The euro/dollar pair traded within a range of 1.1586 to 1.1644 before closing near 1.1634, continuing to consolidate in the low 1.1600s.On the upside, the 1.1650 level is likely to be a key focus, while on the downside, the 1.1600 to 1.1580 range is likely to be closely watched. Today’s schedule includes the release of French CPI and preliminary German CPI figures, as well as remarks by Bank of England (BOE) Governor Bailey; we will be monitoring how European currencies react to these inflation-related developments.

Today’s economic indicators include the revised French GDP for January–March at 15:45, April consumer spending, and the May Consumer Price Index (CPI, preliminary estimate); the Swiss KOF Leading Economic Index for May at 16:00;at 4:55 p.m., Germany’s May unemployment figures and unemployment rate; at 6:20 p.m., remarks by Bank of England (BOE) Governor Bailey; at 7:00 p.m., details on Japan’s foreign exchange intervention; at 9:00 p.m., Germany’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI, preliminary);21:30 Canada’s Jan–Mar GDP and March monthly GDP, U.S. April wholesale inventories, and 22:45 U.S. May Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) will be the main focus.In particular, during New York trading hours, Canadian GDP and the U.S. Chicago PMI are likely to be key drivers, while during European trading hours, the German CPI will likely be a key factor; we should carefully monitor the reactions of the Canadian dollar, U.S. dollar, and euro.