All eyes on the FOMC minutes
20.05.2026
- Eurozone April Consumer Price Index
- Minutes of the FOMC Meeting
In the previous session, the U.S. dollar traded at elevated levels as inflation concerns persisted amid uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East and rising oil prices, accompanied by rising U.S. interest rates. The dollar/yen pair fluctuated within a range from the upper 158.70s to the mid-159.20s before closing in the low 159s, with resistance around the 159.00 level likely to be a key focus.On the downside, the focus will likely be on whether the 158.50 to 158.00 area acts as support. With the release of the FOMC minutes pending today, we will be watching to see if there are any changes in market sentiment regarding expectations for U.S. rate hikes and interest rate outlooks.
European currencies were weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar, causing the euro to fall against the dollar. The EUR/USD pair fell from the 1.1660 level to the 1.1590 level before closing around 1.1607; the immediate focus will be on whether it can hold above the 1.1600 level.On the upside, the 1.1660 to 1.1700 range is likely to be watched, while on the downside, the 1.1590 to 1.1550 range is likely to be in focus. The revised April HICP for the eurozone is scheduled for release today, and we will be watching the euro’s reaction to the inflation data.
Today’s economic indicators include South Africa’s April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 5:00 PM, the Eurozone’s April Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP, revised) and HICP Core Index (revised) at 6:00 PM,the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index and South Africa’s March Retail Sales at 8:00 PM, remarks by Bank of England (BOE) Governor Bailey at 10:15 PM, and the FOMC minutes at 3:00 AM.The Eurozone HICP is expected to come in at 3.0% year-on-year, and the HICP Core Index at 2.2% year-on-year. In the FOMC minutes, attention will focus on references to inflation and interest rate outlooks. Eurozone price indicators are likely to be key drivers during European trading hours, while the FOMC minutes will likely be the main focus toward the end of New York trading hours; we should carefully monitor the reactions of the euro, pound, and U.S. dollar.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
