With U.S. economic indicators on the horizon, the USD/JPY pair may test its upside potential

With U.S. economic indicators on the horizon, the USD/JPY pair may test its upside potential

15.05.2026

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the data presented a mixed picture: while U.S. retail sales for April rose 0.5% month-over-month—in line with market expectations—the number of initial jobless claims for the previous week increased to 211,000.However, the U.S. dollar remained firm amid concerns over rising import prices and inflation risks stemming from the situation in the Middle East. The USD/JPY pair fluctuated within a range of 157.43 to 158.43 before closing near 158.38; the immediate focus is on whether it can maintain the 158.00 level.On the upside, the 158.50 level is likely to be watched, while on the downside, the 157.50 to 157.00 range is likely to be in focus; we will assess the upside potential based on today’s U.S. manufacturing-related indicators.

European currencies saw the pound fall against the dollar as uncertainty surrounding British politics weighed on the market, despite the UK’s preliminary GDP figure for January–March showing a solid 0.6% quarter-on-quarter increase.GBP/USD briefly fell to around 1.3400 and has been trading with limited upside, unable to hold above the 1.3500 level.The key focus on the downside is whether the pair can hold around 1.3400, while on the upside, the 1.3480 to 1.3500 range is likely to be viewed as a target for a rebound. Amid the ongoing tug-of-war between the UK economy’s resilience and political risks, we want to assess the pound’s potential for a rebound.

Today’s key economic indicators include the final Hong Kong GDP figures for January–March at 17:30, Canadian housing starts for April at 21:15, the U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index for May at 21:30, Canadian securities investment figures for March, Canadian manufacturing shipments for March,and at 22:15, the U.S. April industrial production and April capacity utilization rate. During New York trading hours in particular, the New York Fed Manufacturing Index and U.S. industrial production tend to serve as key indicators of the strength of the U.S. economy, so we will carefully monitor the reaction of the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar.