The euro faces resistance at higher levels; the market may be waiting to see if there is room for a rebound

The euro faces resistance at higher levels; the market may be waiting to see if there is room for a rebound

22.04.2026 New

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen following the release of U.S. March retail sales data, which came in at 1.7%—exceeding market expectations of 1.4% and up from the previous month’s 0.6% increase.The USD/JPY pair rose from 158.687 to 159.641. On the hourly chart, the price moved upward from the -2σ to the +2σ Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the 200 EMA is providing support at the lower end, pushing the RSI up from 45 to 59. On the daily chart, while the pair has been trading in a range since the start of the month, it is barely managing to stay above the 20 MA.

European currencies weakened, with the euro hitting its lowest level during U.S. trading hours following the release of Germany’s April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which deteriorated sharply from -0.5% in the previous month to -17.2%. While other yen crosses rose, the euro/yen pair traded sideways, remaining within the range of 186.952 to 187.361. On the 4-hour chart, the price is hovering just below the 20-day moving average, searching for direction.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s trade balance (customs-based) at 8:50, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index at 9:30, the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Price Index, and Producer Price Index (PPI) at 15:00,at 5:00 PM South Africa’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), at 5:05 PM remarks by UK BOE Deputy Governor Breeden, at 8:00 PM South Africa’s Retail Sales, the US MBA Mortgage Applications Index, and Turkey’s TCMB policy rate and statement release, at 11:00 PM the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index, at 11:30 PM US weekly crude oil inventories,at 2:00 AM: Remarks by Nagle, President of the German Bundesbank; US 20-year Treasury auction; at 2:30 AM: Remarks by Lagarde, ECB President. I intend to wait and see regarding the euro’s limited upside potential.

Past Market Reports

1. 22.04.2026New

   The euro faces resistance at higher levels; the market may be waiting to see if there is room for a rebound

2. 21.04.2026New

   Will interest grow in the upside potential of the Swiss franc, which has risen against the yen?

3. 20.04.2026New

   With the euro-Australian dollar pair hitting new lows this month, attention is turning to how much further it might fall

4. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

5. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

6. 15.04.2026

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

7. 14.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

8. 13.04.2026

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

9. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

10. 09.04.2026

    Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?