Euro Faces Resistance; Market Awaits Signs of a Rebound

Euro Faces Resistance; Market Awaits Signs of a Rebound

22.04.2026

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen following the release of U.S. March retail sales data, which came in at 1.7%—exceeding market expectations of 1.4% and up from the previous month’s 0.6% increase. The USD/JPY pair rose from 158.687 to 159.641.On the hourly chart, the price moved upward from the -2σ to the +2σ Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the 200 EMA is providing support at the lower end, pushing the RSI up from 45 to 59. On the daily chart, while the pair has been trading in a range since the start of the month, it is barely managing to stay above the 20 MA.

European currencies saw the euro hit its weakest level during U.S. trading hours, partly due to the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for April—released yesterday—which deteriorated sharply from -0.5% the previous month to -17.2%.While other yen crosses rose, the euro/yen traded sideways, remaining within the range of 186.952 to 187.361. On the 4-hour chart, the price is hovering just below the 20-period moving average, searching for direction.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s trade balance (customs-based) at 8:50, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index at 9:30, the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Price Index, and Producer Price Index (PPI) at 15:00,at 5:00 PM, South Africa’s Consumer Price Index (CPI); at 5:05 PM, remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Breeden; at 8:00 PM, South Africa’s retail sales, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index, and the Turkish Central Bank’s (TCMB) policy rate announcement and statement; at 11:00 PM, the Eurozone’sConsumer Confidence Index; at 23:30, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories; at 26:00, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel and the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction; and at 26:30, remarks by ECB President Lagarde are scheduled.I would like to wait and see how much room the euro has to recover, given its limited upside potential.