Euro Struggles to Gain Ground; Market Awaits Signs of a Recovery

Euro Struggles to Gain Ground; Market Awaits Signs of a Rebound

22.04.2026

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen after the March U.S. retail sales figures, released yesterday, came in at 1.7%—exceeding market expectations of 1.4% and up from the previous month’s 0.6% increase.The USD/JPY pair rose from 158.687 to 159.641. On the hourly chart, it moved upward from the -2σ to the +2σ Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the 200 EMA provided support at the lower end, pushing the RSI up from 45 to 59. On the daily chart, while the pair has been trading in a range since the start of the month, it is barely managing to stay above the 20 MA.

European currencies weakened, with the euro hitting its lowest level during U.S. trading hours following the release of Germany’s April ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which deteriorated sharply from -0.5% in the previous month to -17.2%. While other yen crosses rose, the euro/yen pair traded sideways, remaining within the range of 186.952 to 187.361. On the 4-hour chart, the price is hovering just below the 20-day moving average, searching for direction.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s trade balance (customs-cleared basis) at 8:50, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index at 9:30, the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Price Index, and Producer Price Index (PPI) at 15:00,at 5:00 PM, South Africa’s Consumer Price Index (CPI); at 5:05 PM, remarks by UK BOE Deputy Governor Breeden; at 8:00 PM, South Africa’s Retail Sales, the US MBA Mortgage Applications Index, and the Turkish Central Bank’s (TCMB) policy rate announcement and statement; at 11:00 PM, the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index; at 11:30 PM, US weekly crude oil inventories;at 2:00 AM: Remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel, U.S. 20-year Treasury auction, and at 2:30 AM: Remarks by ECB President Lagarde. I intend to wait and see regarding the euro’s limited upside potential.