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Will the falling euro-dollar pair recover? Or should we wait and see how prices move during European trading hours?

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Will the falling euro-dollar pair recover? Or should we wait and see how prices move during European trading hours?

25.03.2026

Today's Highlights
  1. Japan Economic Sentiment Index
  2. Remarks by Federal Reserve Board Governor Milan

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar reached its strongest level during U.S. trading hours after the March U.S. PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data released yesterday showed improvements in both the non-manufacturing and manufacturing sectors compared to the previous month.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1618 to 1.1557. On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) is acting as a resistance level, making it difficult for prices to rise, while on the daily chart, the price is currently retesting the support level after breaking below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA).

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc fell against the U.S. dollar. The USD/CHF pair rose from 0.7852 to 0.7923. On the hourly chart, the price has moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the 4-hour chart, the price is trading just below the 20-period MA without a clear direction, while on the daily chart, the price is trending upward with support from the 20-period MA.

Today’s economic indicators include the release of the BOJ meeting minutes at 8:50, Australia’s Consumer Price Index at 9:30, Japan’s Economic Sentiment Index at 14:00, the UK’s Consumer Price Index, Retail Price Index, and Producer Price Index at 16:00, remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 17:45, and Germany’sIFO Business Climate Index, 8:00 PM for the US MBA Mortgage Applications Index, 9:30 PM for the US Import Price Index, 11:30 PM for US weekly crude oil inventories, 2:00 AM for the US 5-year Treasury auction, and 5:10 AM for remarks by US Federal Reserve Governor Miran. I’ll be watching the price action during European trading hours to see if the euro/dollar, which has been falling, shows signs of recovery.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

I have over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, I have focused primarily on foreign exchange trading and have also worked as an investment advisor. Drawing on my extensive experience, I specialize in technical and fundamental analysis.

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