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Will the falling euro-dollar pair rebound? Or should we wait and see how prices move during European trading hours?

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Will the falling euro-dollar pair rebound? Or should we wait and see how prices move during European trading hours?

25.03.2026

Today's Highlights
  1. Japan Economic Sentiment Index
  2. Remarks by Federal Reserve Board Member Milan of the U.S.

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar reached its strongest level during U.S. trading hours as the U.S. March PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data released yesterday showed improvements in both the non-manufacturing and manufacturing sectors compared to the previous month.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1618 to 1.1557. On the hourly chart, the price moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) is acting as a resistance level, making it difficult for prices to rise, while on the daily chart, the price is currently retesting the level after breaking below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA).

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc fell against the U.S. dollar. The USD/CHF pair rose from 0.7852 to 0.7923. It moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart to above it.On the 4-hour chart, the price is consolidating just below the 20-period moving average without a clear direction, while on the daily chart, the price is trending upward with support from the 20-period moving average.

Today’s economic indicators include the release of the minutes of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting at 8:50, Australia’s Consumer Price Index at 9:30, Japan’s Economic Sentiment Index at 14:00, the UK’s Consumer Price Index, Retail Price Index, and Producer Price Index at 16:00,17:45: Remarks by ECB President Lagarde, 18:00: Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index, 20:00: U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index, 21:30: U.S. Import Price Index, 23:30: U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories,at 26:00, a U.S. 5-year Treasury auction; and at 29:10, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Milan. I’d like to closely monitor price movements during European trading hours to see if the euro/dollar pair, which has been falling, will show signs of recovery.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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