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Should We Focus on the Downside Potential of GBP/JPY, Which Has Seen a Notable Decline?

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Should We Focus on the Downside Potential of GBP/JPY, Which Has Seen a Notable Decline?

18.02.2026

Today's Highlights
  1. New Zealand: RBNZ Policy Rate and Statement Release
  2. UK Consumer Price Index

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fluctuated against the yen after the February New York Fed Manufacturing Index, released yesterday, fell to 7.1 from 7.7 the previous month.The USD/JPY pair traded between 152.701 and 153.927. Prices fluctuated within the range of the hourly Bollinger Bands from -3σ to +3σ.On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to trade sideways just below the 20-period moving average (MA), while on the daily chart, it has found support near the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) but is facing resistance on the upside.

Among European currencies, the pound fell sharply against the yen. The GBP/JPY pair dropped from 209.476 to 207.229.A downtrend has emerged along the -2σ line of the hourly Bollinger Bands, and on the 4-hour chart, the RSI has fallen to 30, indicating an oversold condition. Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the pair hit a new low for the year with a bearish engulfing candle. The pound has weakened to levels not seen since last December.

Today’s schedule includes the Australian Westpac Leading Index at 8:30, Japan’s customs-based trade balance at 8:50, the Australian Q4 Wage Index at 9:30, the RBNZ policy rate and statement at 10:00, and at 11:00, theRBNZ Governor Breman’s press conference, at 16:00 the UK Consumer Price Index, UK Retail Price Index, and UK Producer Price Index, at 17:00 South Africa’s Consumer Price Index, at 21:00 the US MBA Mortgage Applications Index, at 22:30 the USHousing Starts and U.S. Durable Goods Orders; at 23:15, U.S. Industrial Production; at 27:00, U.S. 20-Year Treasury Auction; and at 28:00, the release of the U.S. FOMC Minutes. We will be watching for further downside potential in GBP/JPY, which has seen a notable decline.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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