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Attention on the downside potential of the weakening Swiss franc

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Should We Focus on the Downside Potential of the Weakening Swiss Franc?

03.02.2026

Today's Highlights
  1. New Zealand: Housing Construction Permits
  2. Australia: RBA Policy Rate and Statement Release

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the dollar strengthened as the U.S. January PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), released yesterday, rebounded to 52.4 from 51.9 the previous month. The euro fell against the dollar from 1.1875 to 1.1776.The pair fell as it encountered resistance at the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, it has entered a downtrend along the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it has fallen for two consecutive days to just below the 20-period MA.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc was the weakest. The franc-yen exchange rate fell from 200.923 to 199.092.On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen just below the 75-period MA, and on the daily chart, after testing the all-time high but failing to break it, the price pulled back to the 10-period MA. Since a rebound has been observed during today’s Asian trading session, we will be watching closely to see if the Swiss franc recovers during European trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include New Zealand housing permits at 6:45, Japan’s monetary base at 8:50, Australia’s housing permits at 9:30,12:30: Australia’s RBA policy rate and statement, 13:30: Australia’s RBA Governor Block press conference, 16:45: France’s Consumer Price Index and budget balance,at 22:00, remarks by U.S. Richmond Fed President Barkin, and at 23:40, remarks by U.S. Fed Vice Chair Bowman. Please note that today’s U.S. JOLTS job openings report has been postponed. Keep an eye on the downside potential of the weakening Swiss franc.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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