Will the market wait and see how much room there is for the USD/CHF pair to recover after falling to the price range seen during the Swiss franc shock?
26.01.2026
- Japan Economic Sentiment Index
- Rice and Durable Goods Orders
Last weekend, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen despite the improvement in Canada’s November retail sales figures, released on the 23rd, which rose to +1.3% from -0.2% the previous month. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 115.432 to 113.606. The hourly RSI dropped from 70 to 26.On the 4-hour chart, the price moved from the +3σ to the -3σ Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, the price broke below the 20-day moving average (20MA), which had previously served as support, with a real body candle.
Among European currencies, the Swiss franc rose against the U.S. dollar. The USD/CHF pair fell from 0.7913 to 0.7789. A downtrend developed from just below the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart, following the -3σ line of the Bollinger Bands. The 4-hour chart showed a similar price movement, and the daily chart broke well below the year-to-date low. The pair has reached its lowest level since the "franc shock" of January 2015.
Today's economic indicators include Japan's Economic Sentiment Index at 2:00 p.m. and Germany'sIFO Business Climate Index at 6:00 PM, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 8:00 PM, U.S. Durable Goods Orders and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 10:30 PM, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 10:30 PM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 12:30 AM, and a U.S. 2-year Treasury auction at 3:00 AM.We intend to cautiously monitor the potential for recovery in the USD/CHF pair, which has fallen to price levels seen during the Swiss franc shock.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
