Will the market wait and see how much room there is for the USD/CHF pair to recover after falling to the levels seen during the Swiss franc shock?

Will the market wait and see how much room there is for the USD/CHF pair to recover after falling to the levels seen during the Swiss franc shock?

26.01.2026

Last weekend, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen despite the improvement in Canada’s November retail sales, released on the 23rd, which rose to +1.3% from -0.2% the previous month. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 115.432 to 113.606. The hourly RSI dropped from 70 to 26.On the 4-hour chart, the price moved from the +3σ to the -3σ Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, the price broke below the 20-day moving average (MA), which had previously served as support, with a real body candle.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc rose against the U.S. dollar. The USD/CHF pair fell from 0.7913 to 0.7789. A downtrend developed along the -3σ line of the Bollinger Bands, starting just below the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. The 4-hour chart showed a similar price movement, and the daily chart broke well below the year-to-date low. The pair has reached its lowest level since the "franc shock" of January 2015.

Today's economic indicators include Japan's Economic Sentiment Index at 2:00 PM and Germany'sThe IFO Business Climate Index at 14:00, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 18:00, U.S. Durable Goods Orders and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 20:00, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 22:30, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 24:30, and a U.S. 2-year Treasury auction at 27:00 are scheduled.We intend to cautiously monitor the potential for recovery in the USD/CHF pair, which has fallen to price levels seen during the Swiss franc shock.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed