Will the market wait and see how much room there is for the USD/CHF pair to recover after it fell to the price range seen during the Swiss franc shock?
26.01.2026
- Japan Economic Sentiment Index
- U.S. Durable Goods Orders
Last weekend, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen despite the improvement in Canada’s November retail sales figures—released on the 23rd—which rose to +1.3% from -0.2% the previous month. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 115.432 to 113.606.The hourly RSI fell from 70 to 26. On the 4-hour chart, the price moved from the +3σ to the -3σ Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, the price broke below the 20-day moving average (20MA), which had previously served as support, with a real body candle.
Among European currencies, the Swiss franc rose against the U.S. dollar. The USD/CHF pair fell from 0.7913 to 0.7789.A downtrend developed along the -3σ Bollinger Band, starting just below the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. The 4-hour chart showed a similar price movement, and the daily chart broke well below the year-to-date low. The pair has reached its lowest level since the “franc shock” of January 2015.
Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s Economic Trends Index at 14:00, Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index at 18:00, remarks by Nagel, President of the German Federal Bank, at 20:00, U.S. Durable Goods Orders at 22:30,the U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel, the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 24:30, and a U.S. 2-year Treasury auction at 27:00.We intend to cautiously monitor the potential for recovery in the USD/CHF pair, which has fallen to price levels last seen during the Swiss franc shock.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
