All eyes are on whether the U.S. dollar, already at its weakest, will continue to weaken
21.01.2026
- Westpac Leading Economic Index (Australia)
- Remarks by U.S. President Trump (World Economic Forum)
In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar remained the weakest performer, continuing the trend from the day before yesterday. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.1632 to 1.1767, breaking through the resistance zone at the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI rose from 55 to 77. On the daily chart, the pair has reached a new high for the month. Since there has been no significant pullback during today’s Asian session, we will be watching for further weakness in the U.S. dollar during the European session.
European currencies rose against the yen after Germany’s January ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, released yesterday, came in at 59.6—significantly exceeding market expectations of 49.0 and up from the previous month’s 45.8.The euro/yen pair rose from 183.771 to 185.464. The 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart acted as a support level, causing prices to turn upward. On the 4-hour chart, the candlesticks have reached the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, prices have recovered to a range near the year-to-date high.
Today’s schedule includes the Westpac Leading Economic Index (Australia) at 8:30, the UK Consumer Price Index, UK Producer Price Index, and UK Retail Price Index at 16:00, remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 16:30, the UK CBI Business Survey at 20:00, the US MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 21:00, and the CanadianIndustrial Product Prices and Raw Materials Price Index, remarks by U.S. President Trump (Davos Forum) at 10:30 PM, pending home sales and construction spending data from the U.S. at midnight, remarks by ECB President Lagarde (Davos Forum) at 1:45 AM, and a U.S. 20-year Treasury auction at 3:00 AM. We will carefully assess the direction of the market to determine whether the U.S. dollar, which has already hit a new low, will continue to weaken further.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
