Watch for further downside potential in GBP/USD, which has hit a new low for the year
16.01.2026
- M.I. NAHB Housing Market Index
- Remarks by Jefferson, Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve
In the previous day's U.S. currency trading, the dollar traded in a narrow range against the yen.The USD/JPY pair traded between 158.177 and 158.871, fluctuating around the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart throughout the session. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is searching for direction just below the 20-period MA, while on the daily chart, the +2σ Bollinger Band is acting as a resistance level, causing the upward momentum to stall. Notably, the price has fallen to the 157 yen level during today’s Asian session, so we should keep a close eye on price movements during the European session.
Among European currencies, the pound fell against the U.S. dollar. The GBP/USD pair dropped from 1.3443 to 1.3363. It fell from the +2σ to the -2σ of the hourly Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken below the 200-day SMA, which had been acting as support, with the price action on the daily chart mirroring that of the 4-hour chart. Although the pair rebounded during today’s Asian session, the upside has been limited; therefore, we should remain cautious of further declines during the U.S. trading session.
Today’s economic indicators include the New Zealand Manufacturing PMI at 6:30 a.m., the German Consumer Price Index at 4:00 p.m., Canadian Housing Starts at 10:15 p.m., Canadian International Securities Turnover at 10:30 p.m., U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 11:15 p.m., the U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index at midnight, and Collins at 12:50 a.m.:Boston Fed President’s remarks, 1:00 AM: U.S. Fed Vice Chair Bowman’s remarks, and 5:30 AM: U.S. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson’s remarks. Keep an eye on the downside potential for GBP/USD, which has hit a year-to-date low.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
