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Will the weakening Canadian dollar fall further? All eyes are on price movements during U.S. trading hours.

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Will the weakening Canadian dollar fall further? All eyes are on price movements during U.S. trading hours.

08.01.2026

Today's Highlights
  1. Japan's Monthly Labor Survey
  2. U.S. Nonfarm Labor Productivity

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 113.478 to 113.065. It formed lower highs and lower lows along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the pair is in a downtrend along the 10-period moving average (MA), and on the daily chart, the price has broken below the support line formed by the 20-period MA—which had previously provided support—with a real-body candle. On the monthly chart, prices are trending downward after failing to reach the high from two years ago, so traders should watch for further weakness in the Canadian dollar during U.S. trading hours.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc continued to fall against the yen. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 197.236 to 196.384.The pair declined along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. Similar price action was observed on the 4-hour chart, and on the daily chart, the pair has fallen for three consecutive days and is now at a critical juncture, poised to break below the 20-period MA line that had been providing support. Furthermore, on the weekly chart, the pair has pulled back from the +2σ level of the Bollinger Bands, so caution is warranted regarding the possibility of further declines heading into the weekend.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s Monthly Labor Survey at 8:30, Japan’s Foreign and Domestic Securities Investment at 8:50, Australia’strade balance at 9:30 a.m., Japan’s Consumer Sentiment Index at 2:00 p.m., Germany’s New Manufacturing Orders at 4:00 p.m., the Eurozone’s Consumer Confidence Index, Economic Sentiment Index, Producer Price Index, and Employment Statistics at 7:00 p.m.,at 9:30 PM, U.S. Challenger Layoffs; at 10:30 PM, U.S. Nonfarm Labor Productivity, Canada’s International Commodity Trade, U.S. Trade Balance, and U.S. Initial Jobless Claims; and at midnight, remarks by Fed Governor Milan and U.S. Wholesale Inventories.We will be closely monitoring price movements during U.S. trading hours to see if the weakening Canadian dollar will extend its decline.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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Will the employment report bring any changes? Should we focus on the strength or weakness of the Canadian dollar?
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