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Will the Euro, Which Has Risen Against the Yen, Continue to Climb? Caution Is Advised

Market Report

Will the Euro, Which Has Risen Against the Yen, Continue to Climb? Caution Is Warranted

14.11.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. Japan: Tertiary Sector Activity Index
  2. Canada: Manufacturing Revenue

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen. The USD/JPY pair dropped from 155.014 to 154.119. It fell within the range of the hourly Bollinger Bands from +2σ to -3σ.On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen just below the 20-period moving average (MA), and on the daily chart, similar to the 4-hour chart, a pullback from the +2σ level of the Bollinger Bands is currently underway. Note that during today’s Asian trading session, the price has once again shown an upward trend, so it will be important to monitor whether an upward move occurs during U.S. trading hours.

The euro rose against the yen despite the fact that the Eurozone’s September industrial production figures, released yesterday, showed a year-over-year increase of 1.2%—up from the previous month’s 1.1%—but fell short of market expectations of 2.0%. The euro/yen pair rose from 179.172 to 179.936.The pair trended higher, finding support at the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to move along the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it has extended its gains for the fifth consecutive day. The RSI has reached 70, indicating an overbought condition.

Today’s economic indicators include: Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity Index at 1:30 p.m., Eurozone real GDP and trade balance at 7:00 p.m., Canada’s manufacturing sales and wholesale sales at 10:30 p.m., and at 12:05 a.m., U.S. remarks by Schmidt:Kansas City Fed President’s remarks at 24:05, U.S. weekly natural gas inventories at 24:30, and U.S. Logan: Dallas Fed President’s remarks at 28:30.Note that the release of U.S. retail sales, the Producer Price Index, and business inventories continues to be postponed due to the government shutdown. We should remain cautious to see if the euro, which has risen against the yen, will extend its gains.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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Despite the improvement in GDP, will the market wait and see how much room the euro has to recover after its decline against the yen?
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