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Should We Be Wary of the Euro's Upside Potential as It Continues to Rise Against the U.S. Dollar?

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Should We Be Wary of the Euro's Upside Potential as It Continues to Rise Against the U.S. Dollar?

12.11.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. Canada: Housing Construction Permit
  2. Paulson (U.S.): Remarks by the President of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank

In the U.S. currency market the previous day, the U.S. dollar traded in a seesaw pattern against the yen. The USD/JPY pair fluctuated between 153.663 and 154.442, with price action straddling the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the pair is turning upward again while finding support at the lower end of the Bollinger Bands’ centerline. On the daily chart, the 10-period moving average is acting as a support line, preventing a significant decline in prices.

Among European currencies, the euro rose against the U.S. dollar for the fifth consecutive day. The EUR/USD pair climbed from 1.1547 to 1.1605. Supported on the downside by the 75-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart, the pair surged to the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the price has surged sharply to just below the 200-period EMA, and on the daily chart, it is currently attempting to break above the resistance zone formed by the 20-period MA. However, as the euro’s upside has become slightly weighed down during today’s Asian trading session, traders should pay close attention to the direction of the market during European trading hours.

Today's economic indicators include remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Board Member Bar at 12:25, Japan's machine tool orders at 15:00, and Germany'sConsumer Price Index, at 21:00: U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index, at 21:05: U.K. MPC Member Pill’s remarks, at 22:30: Canada Housing Starts, at 23:20: U.S. NY Fed President Williams’ remarks, at 24:00: U.S. Philadelphia Fed President Paulson’sPresident of the Philadelphia Fed, at 24:20: Remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Waller, at 26:30: Remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Milan, and at 27:00: U.S. 10-year Treasury note auction.We should watch for the upside potential of the euro, which has continued to rise against the U.S. dollar.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets, and he also has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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