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All eyes are on whether the Swiss franc, now at its weakest, will continue to fall further

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All eyes are on whether the Swiss franc, now at its weakest, will continue to fall further

04.11.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. Australia: RBA Policy Rate and Statement Release
  2. Remarks by ECB President Lagarde

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen. The CAD/JPY pair dropped from 110.105 to 109.425.The price fell to the vicinity of the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, it has broken below the 20-period MA, which had been acting as support, and on the daily chart, it has pulled back from the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands. On the other hand, the monthly chart closed with a large bullish candle with no wicks, so we should pay attention to the strength or weakness of the Canadian dollar during U.S. trading hours.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc weakened during European trading hours and hit its lowest level during U.S. trading hours. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 191.830 to 190.550. It broke below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart with a real body candle. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has dropped from 62 to 36, and on the daily chart, the pair is on the verge of breaking below the 20-period moving average (MA) that had been supporting the uptrend.

Today’s schedule includes the RBA’s policy rate decision and statement at 12:30 p.m., the RBA’s Quarterly Monetary Policy Report at 12:30 p.m., RBA Governor Block’s press conference at 1:30 p.m., ECB President Lagarde’s remarks at 4:40 p.m., France’s budget balance at 4:45 p.m., and at 7:00 p.m.ECB President Lagarde’s remarks, at 8:35 PM US time, remarks by US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman, at 8:40 PM UK time, remarks by UK BOE Deputy Governor Breeden, at midnight US time, US JOLTS job openings and US manufacturing orders, at 2:00 AM US time, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel, and at 5:00 AM US time, the release of the NZ RBNZ Financial Stability Report.With the Swiss franc having hit a new low, we will be watching closely to see if it continues to fall during European trading hours.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

I have over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, I have focused primarily on foreign exchange trading and have also worked as an investment advisor. Drawing on my extensive experience, I specialize in technical and fundamental analysis.

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