All eyes are on whether the Swiss franc, now at its weakest, will continue to fall

All eyes are on whether the Swiss franc, now at its weakest, will continue to fall

04.11.2025

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen. The CAD/JPY pair dropped from 110.105 to 109.425.The price fell to the vicinity of the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, it has broken below the 20-period MA, which had been acting as support, and on the daily chart, it has pulled back from the +2σ level of the Bollinger Bands. On the other hand, the monthly chart closed with a large bullish candle without a wick, so we should pay attention to the strength or weakness of the Canadian dollar during U.S. trading hours.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc weakened during European trading hours and hit its lowest level during U.S. trading hours. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 191.830 to 190.550. It broke below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart with a real body candle. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has dropped from 62 to 36, and on the daily chart, the pair is on the verge of breaking below the 20-period moving average (MA) that had been forming an uptrend.

Today’s schedule includes the RBA’s policy rate decision and statement at 12:30, the RBA’s Quarterly Monetary Policy Report at 12:30, RBA Governor Block’s press conference at 13:30, ECB President Lagarde’s remarks at 16:40, France’s budget balance at 16:45, and at 19:00,ECB President Lagarde’s remarks, at 8:35 PM US time, remarks by US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman, at 8:40 PM UK time, remarks by BOE Deputy Governor Breeden, at 12:00 AM US time, US JOLTS job openings and US manufacturing orders, at 2:00 AM US time, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel, and at 5:00 AM US time, the release of the NZ RBNZ Financial Stability Report.We will be watching price movements during European trading hours to see if the Swiss franc, which has hit a new low, will continue to fall further.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed