Should we be wary of further downside potential for the euro against the U.S. dollar?
21.10.2025
- Remarks by ECB President Lagarde
- Remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Waller
In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the Canadian dollar rose against the yen after Canada’s September industrial production figures, released yesterday, improved from a 0.6% decline in the previous month to a 1.7% increase. The CAD/JPY pair rose from 107.076 to 107.914, moving above the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) is acting as a support level, and a reversal appears to be underway. On the daily chart, the pair is currently attempting to break above the resistance line formed by the 20-period moving average (MA).
European currencies fell against the U.S. dollar, even though Germany’s September Producer Price Index (PPI), released yesterday, improved year-over-year from -2.2% in the previous month to -1.7%.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1675 to 1.1638. A downtrend has emerged along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has pulled back as resistance from the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) has capped its upside, and on the daily chart, a downtrend is forming along the 20-period MA.
Today’s economic calendar includes the Swiss trade balance at 3:00 PM, Japanese machine tool orders at 3:00 PM, remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 8:00 PM, the Canadian Consumer Price Index at 9:30 PM, remarks by Fed Governor Waller at 10:00 PM, and remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 7:00 AM the following day. No other major speeches or key economic indicators are scheduled.We should remain highly vigilant regarding the downside potential for the euro, which has fallen against the U.S. dollar.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
