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Should We Be Wary of Further Declines in the Euro Against the U.S. Dollar?

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Should We Be Wary of Further Declines in the Euro Against the U.S. Dollar?

21.10.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. Remarks by ECB President Lagarde
  2. Remarks by Federal Reserve Board Member Waller

In U.S. currency trading yesterday, the Canadian dollar rose against the yen after Canada’s September industrial production figures, released yesterday, improved to +1.7% from the previous month’s -0.6%. The CAD/JPY pair rose from 107.076 to 107.914, with price action straddling the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) is acting as a support level, and a reversal appears to be underway. On the daily chart, the pair is currently attempting to break above the resistance line formed by the 20-period moving average (MA).

European currencies fell against the U.S. dollar, even though Germany’s September Producer Price Index (PPI), released yesterday, improved year-over-year from the previous month’s -2.2% to -1.7%.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1675 to 1.1638. A downtrend has emerged along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has pulled back as it was capped by the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), and on the daily chart, a downtrend is beginning to form along the 20-period MA.

Today's economic indicators include the Swiss trade balance at 15:00,Japan’s machine tool orders at 15:00, remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 20:00, Canada’s Consumer Price Index at 21:30, remarks by Fed Governor Waller at 22:00, and remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 7:00 the following day.No other major speeches by key figures or important economic indicators are scheduled. We should remain highly vigilant regarding the downside potential for the euro, which has fallen against the U.S. dollar.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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