Concerns over further downside potential for the euro, which has weakened following Japan

Concerns over further downside potential for the euro, which has weakened following Japan

07.10.2025

In the previous day's U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose against the euro.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1730 to 1.1653. It declined as it encountered resistance at the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken below the 200-period SMA, which had previously provided support, and on the daily chart, it is forming lower highs along the 20-period moving average (MA). Furthermore, during today’s Asian trading session, the price is trending lower on the hourly chart while being capped by the 200-period SMA.

Among European currencies, the euro fell against the pound. The EUR/GBP pair dropped from 0.8728 to 0.8652, declining along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen just below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), and on the daily chart, the price has broken below the 20-period MA—which had previously served as support—with a real body candle. We will be closely watching to see if ECB President Lagarde’s remarks during today’s U.S. trading session bring any changes to the euro.

Today’s economic indicators include the Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index at 8:30, the Japanese Household Expenditure Survey at 8:30, the Japanese Leading Economic Index at 14:00, German Manufacturing New Orders and UK Halifax House Price Index at 15:00, and the FrenchTrade Balance, and France’s Current Account; at 21:30, Canada’s International Merchandise Trade; at 23:00, Canada’s Ivey PMI, remarks by Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed; at 23:05, remarks by Bowman, Chair of the Federal Reserve; at 23:45, remarks by Milan, Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve; at 24:30, remarks by Kashkari,Minneapolis Fed President, 1:00 AM: Germany – Nagle, President of the German Central Bank, and 1:10 AM: Europe – Lagarde, ECB President. Note that the U.S. trade balance release has been postponed due to the U.S. government shutdown. We should remain cautious about the downside potential for the euro, which has weakened following the Japanese yen.