Will the market wait and see how much further the euro can rise after the ECB announcement?
12.09.2025
- Canada: Residential Building Permit
- UK Industrial Production
In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the Canadian dollar weakened slightly after the U.S. dollar. The USD/CAD pair fell from 1.3891 to 1.3825. It dropped from the +2σ to the -3σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands.The 4-hour chart shows a similar price movement to the hourly chart. On the daily chart, the 200-day EMA is acting as an upper resistance level, capping price gains, and the candlestick has reversed lower just short of last month’s high.
European currencies rose against the U.S. dollar after yesterday’s ECB policy rate announcement, in which the central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.0%—in line with market consensus—and ECB President Lagarde stated that the economies of the 20 eurozone countries were in “good shape.”The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.1659 to 1.1745. The hourly RSI rose from 36 to 69. On the 4-hour chart, the 200 EMA is acting as support, and prices are trending upward; on the daily chart, the uptrend along the 20 MA continues.
Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s Industrial Production at 1:30 PM, UK GDP, UK Industrial Production, UK Manufacturing Output, and UK Goods Trade Balance at 3:00 PM, Germany’s Consumer Price Index at 3:00 PM, France’s Consumer Price Index at 3:45 PM, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 5:45 PM, and Canada’s Housing Starts at 9:30 PM,Q2 Capacity Utilization, and at 23:00, the US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. We intend to cautiously monitor the upside potential of the euro, which rose slightly following the ECB announcement.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
