With PPI also falling, will the market wait and see how much further the euro can rise?
04.09.2025
- European Retail Sales
- U.S. PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the Canadian dollar hit its lowest level during U.S. trading hours after Canada’s second-quarter labor productivity fell to -1.0% from the previous reading of 0.2%. While other yen crosses rose, the CAD/JPY pair fell.It fell from 108.026 to 107.220. On the 4-hour chart, price action is showing a regression from the +3σ Bollinger Band back toward the centerline, while on the daily chart, a divergence is emerging as the RSI gradually turns downward.
Despite the fact that the European Union’s July Producer Price Index (PPI), released yesterday, fell to 0.2% year-on-year from 0.6% the previous month, the euro rose against the U.S. dollar.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.1608 to 1.1679. On the hourly chart, the price moved from the -3σ to the +3σ Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken above the 200-SMA line with a real body candle within a zone of converging short- and long-term moving averages, while on the daily chart, it remains within the range established last month, just below the 20-MA.
Today’s schedule includes Japan’s foreign and domestic securities investment data at 8:50, remarks by RBA Deputy Governor Hauser at 10:00, Australia’strade balance, at 5:30 PM UK Construction PMI, at 6:00 PM Eurozone retail sales, at 6:00 PM South Africa current account balance, at 8:30 PM US Challenger job cuts, at 9:15 PM US ADP employment report, at 9:30 PM US initial jobless claims, US trade balance,22:45 US PMI, 23:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, and 25:05 remarks by US Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams. Despite the decline in PPI, we will cautiously monitor the upside potential of the euro.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
