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Market Participants May Be on Alert for Pound Movements Following Economic Data Releases During European Trading Hours

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Market Participants May Be on Alert for Pound Movements Following Economic Data Releases During European Trading Hours

20.08.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. Japan's Trade Balance on a Customs-Clearance Basis
  2. European Consumer Price Index

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose against the euro after the July housing starts data, released yesterday, came in at 1.428 million—up from the previous month’s 1.321 million and exceeding market expectations of 1.292 million.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1692 to 1.1638. It dropped from the +3σ to the -2σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the pair hit a new low for the week and has pulled back from the 20-day moving average (20MA). On the daily chart, the 20MA is barely providing support at the lower end, and the pair is hovering on the cusp of breaking below it.

European currencies fell against the yen, which was supported by a stronger pound. The GBP/JPY pair fell from 199.853 to 198.816. It dropped from the +2σ to the -3σ levels of the hourly Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the pair is already trading below the 20-period moving average, and on the daily chart, the RSI is in the midst of a sharp drop from 61 to 52. We’ll need to watch the price action following today’s UK CPI release to see if it clarifies the market’s direction.

Today, at 8:50, Japan’s trade balance (customs-based) and machinery orders will be released; at 11:00, the RBNZ will announce its policy rate and statement; at 12:00, RBNZ Governor Hawksby will hold a press conference; and at 15:00, the UK’sConsumer Price Index, UK Retail Sales, UK Producer Price Index, and German Producer Price Index; at 16:10, remarks by ECB President Lagarde; at 17:00, South African Consumer Price Index; at 18:00, EurozoneConsumer Price Index; at 20:00, U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications; at 23:30, U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories; at 24:00, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Waller; and at 27:00, release of the U.S. FOMC Minutes.We should remain vigilant regarding the pound’s price movements following the release of economic indicators during European trading hours.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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