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After a sharp turnaround from its low point, should we keep an eye on the upside potential for the GBP/JPY pair?

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After a sharp turnaround from its low point, should we keep an eye on the upside potential for the GBP/JPY pair?

06.08.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Daily: Remarks by the President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank
  2. Retail Sales in Europe

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar traded in a back-and-forth pattern against the euro. The EUR/USD pair fluctuated between 1.1527 and 1.1587, with price action consistently hovering around the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, prices are stalling just short of the 200-period EMA, while on the daily chart, they are currently hovering as they face resistance at the 20-period MA. We will be watching closely to see if today’s remarks by key officials during U.S. trading hours will cause a shift in the strength or weakness of the U.S. dollar, and how prices move following those remarks.

Among European currencies, the pound strengthened from European trading hours through U.S. trading hours. GBP/JPY rose from 195.026 to 196.450. It moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart to above it.On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has recovered from 30 to 44, and on the daily chart, the pair is currently rebounding after breaking below the 75-day moving average. Given that the pound is also showing strength against the yen during today’s Asian session, traders should remain vigilant regarding the pound’s direction during U.S. trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include German manufacturing orders at 15:00, the UK construction PMI at 17:30, Eurozone retail sales at 18:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories at 23:30,26:00: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Auction; 27:00: Remarks by Fed Governor Cook and Boston Fed President Collins; and 29:10: Remarks by San Francisco Fed President Daily.Having rebounded from its lowest point, we will carefully monitor the upside potential of the GBP/JPY pair.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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