Will the market wait and see how much room the Swiss franc has to recover as resistance builds?
18.07.2025
- Japan: Consumer Price Index
- Germany: Producer Price Index
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rebounded against the yen after the release of U.S. June retail sales data showed an improvement from a 0.9% decline in the previous month to a 0.6% increase. The USD/JPY pair rose from 147.694 to 149.075. On the hourly chart, the price moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it.On the 4-hour chart, the pair has recovered from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it, and on the daily chart, the upward trend continues, supported by the 10-period MA.
Among European currencies, the Swiss franc faced resistance at higher levels. The USD/CHF pair rose from 0.7993 to 0.8063. The price moved higher along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded to just below the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), and on the daily chart, it broke above the 20-period MA—which had previously acted as resistance—with a real body candle. We will be watching for signs of a potential trend reversal to see if the Swiss franc continues to weaken during today’s U.S. trading session.
Today's key economic indicators include remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Waller at 7:30 a.m., Japan's Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m., Germany's Producer Price Index at 3:00 p.m., the Eurozone's Current Account Balance at 5:00 p.m.,a speech by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 5:15 PM, the Eurozone Construction Output at 6:00 PM, U.S. Housing Starts at 9:30 PM, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 11:00 PM. We intend to cautiously monitor the Swiss franc, which has faced resistance on the upside, for any potential recovery.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
