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Will the market wait and see how much room the Swiss franc has to recover as resistance builds?

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Will the market wait and see how much room the Swiss franc has to recover as resistance builds?

18.07.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. Japan: Consumer Price Index
  2. Germany: Producer Price Index

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rebounded against the yen after the U.S. June retail sales figures, released yesterday, improved to +0.6% from the previous month’s -0.9%. The USD/JPY pair rose from 147.694 to 149.075.On the hourly chart, the price has moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the 4-hour chart, the price has recovered from below the 20-period MA to above it, and on the daily chart, the upward trend continues, supported by the 10-period MA.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc faced resistance on the upside. The USD/CHF pair rose from 0.7993 to 0.8063. The price moved higher along the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded to just below the 200-period EMA, and on the daily chart, it has broken above the 20-period MA—which had previously acted as resistance—with a real-body candle. We will be watching for signs of a trend direction, particularly whether the Swiss franc will continue to weaken during today’s U.S. trading session.

Today’s key economic indicators include remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Waller at 7:30, Japan’s Consumer Price Index at 8:30, Germany’s Producer Price Index at 15:00, the Eurozone’s Current Account Balance at 17:00,a speech by German Bundesbank President Nagel at 17:15, the Eurozone Construction Output at 18:00, U.S. Housing Starts at 21:30, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 23:00.We intend to cautiously monitor the Swiss franc’s potential for recovery as it faces resistance on the upside.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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