Should We Keep an Eye on the Upside Potential for the Euro/Dollar Pair, Which Has Reached a New High for the Year?
30.06.2025
- Chicago Purchasing Managers' Association Business Activity Index
- NZ and ANZ Business Confidence
Last weekend, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen. The USD/JPY pair rose from 144.173 to 144.953. It moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart to above it.On the 4-hour chart, the pair has rebounded from the -2σ level of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it is currently attempting to break above the 20-period moving average. We should watch closely to see if end-of-month flows will cause any changes in the strength of the U.S. dollar.
Among European currencies, the euro rose against the U.S. dollar. The euro/dollar pair extended its gains for the seventh consecutive business day, rising from 1.1681 to 1.1753.On the 4-hour chart, a divergence is developing between the candlesticks and the RSI, while on the daily chart, the pair has risen to levels not seen since September 26, 2021. We will be watching to see if the euro continues its upward trend, while keeping an eye on this divergence.
Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s Industrial Production at 8:50, New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence at 10:00, Japan’s Housing Starts at 14:00, Germany’s Import Price Index, Germany’s Retail Sales, the UK’s Real GDP, and the UK’s Current Account Balance at 15:00,17:00: Eurozone Money Supply; 17:30: UK Consumer Credit Balances; 21:00: South Africa Trade Balance;Germany’s Consumer Price Index, at 22:45 the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index, at 23:00 remarks by Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, and at 28:00 remarks by ECB President Lagarde are scheduled.We want to carefully assess the upside potential for the euro/dollar pair, which has been hitting new highs for the year.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
