Should we focus on the upside potential of the euro-dollar pair, which has hit a new high for the year?

Should we focus on the upside potential of the euro-dollar pair, which has hit a new high for the year?

30.06.2025

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen. The USD/JPY pair rose from 144.173 to 144.953. On the hourly chart, the price moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the 4-hour chart, the price has rebounded from the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it is currently attempting to break above the 20-period MA. We should watch to see if end-of-month flows cause any shifts in the dollar’s strength.

Among European currencies, the euro rose against the U.S. dollar. The EUR/USD pair extended its gains for the seventh consecutive trading day, climbing from 1.1681 to 1.1753. On the 4-hour chart, a divergence is emerging between the candlesticks and the RSI, while on the daily chart, the pair has risen to levels not seen since September 26, 2021. We will be watching to see if the euro continues its upward trend, while keeping an eye on this divergence.

Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s Industrial Production at 8:50, New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence at 10:00, Japan’s Housing Starts at 14:00, Germany’s Import Price Index and Retail Sales, the UK’s Real GDP and Current Account Balance at 15:00,at 5:00 PM: Eurozone Money Supply; at 5:30 PM: UK Consumer Credit; at 9:00 PM: South Africa Trade Balance and Germany Consumer Price Index; at 10:45 PM: US Chicago PMI; at 11:00 PM: Remarks by Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed; and at 1:00 AM: Remarks by Lagarde, ECB President.We want to carefully assess the upside potential for the euro/dollar pair, which has been hitting new highs for the year.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed