All eyes are on whether the euro, which has been weakening against the yen, will rebound

All eyes are on whether the euro, which has been weakening against the yen, will recover

18.06.2025

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar reached its strongest level during U.S. trading hours. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1579 to 1.1475, dropping just below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken below the upper 20-period moving average (MA) level that had been providing support, while on the daily chart, it has reversed after touching the +3σ line of the Bollinger Bands.While the market expects the Fed to keep rates at 4.50% at today’s FOMC meeting, we will be watching closely to see if comments from key officials shift market sentiment.

Despite the sharp recovery in the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which rose from 11.6 the previous month to 35.3 as announced yesterday, the euro fell against the yen.The euro/yen pair fell from 167.619 to 166.714. It dropped from the +2σ to the -3σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands. While it has broken below the 10-day moving average (MA) that had been providing support on the 4-hour chart, the uptrend along the 10-day MA on the daily chart remains intact.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s trade balance (customs-cleared basis) and machinery orders at 8:50, Australia’s Westpac Leading Index at 9:30, the UK’s Consumer Price Index, Retail Price Index, and Producer Price Index at 15:00, the Eurozone’s current account balance and South Africa’s Consumer Price Index at 17:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00, and the U.S.Housing Starts, at 23:30: Germany – Remarks by Bundesbank President Nagel, at 24:15: Canada – Remarks by BOC Governor McClem, at 27:00: U.S. – FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Statement, and at 27:30: U.S. – Remarks by Fed Chair Powell. We will be watching for signs of a recovery in the euro, which has been weakening against the yen.