All eyes are on whether the euro, which has been weakening against the yen, will rebound

All eyes are on whether the euro, which has been weakening against the yen, will rebound

18.06.2025

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar reached its strongest level during U.S. trading hours. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1579 to 1.1475, dropping just below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, it broke below the upper level of the 20-period moving average (MA) that had been providing support, while on the daily chart, a reversal has occurred after touching the +3σ line of the Bollinger Bands.While the market expects the Fed to keep rates at 4.50% at today’s FOMC meeting, we will be watching closely to see if comments from key officials shift market sentiment.

Despite the sharp recovery in the Euro-Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index—which rose from 11.6 the previous month to 35.3—the euro fell against the yen.The euro/yen pair fell from 167.619 to 166.714. It dropped from the +2σ to the -3σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands. While it has broken below the 10-day moving average (MA) that had been providing support on the 4-hour chart, the upward trend along the 10-day MA on the daily chart remains intact.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s trade balance (customs-based) and machinery orders at 8:50; Australia’s Westpac Leading Index at 9:30; the UK’s Consumer Price Index, Retail Price Index, and Producer Price Index at 15:00; the Eurozone’s current account balance and South Africa’s Consumer Price Index at 17:00; the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00; and the U.S.Housing Starts, at 23:30: Germany – Speech by Nagle, President of the German Federal Bank, at 24:15: Canada – Speech by Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, at 27:00: U.S. – FOMC Policy Rate Decision and Statement, and at 27:30: U.S. – Speech by Fed Chair Powell. We will be watching for signs of a recovery in the euro, which has been weakening against the yen.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed