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Will the euro, which has been weakening against the yen, rebound? All eyes are on its direction.

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Will the euro, which has been weakening against the yen, rebound? All eyes are on its direction.

18.06.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. Australia's Westpac Leading Index
  2. U.S. FOMC Policy Rate and Statement Announcement

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar reached its strongest level during U.S. trading hours. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1579 to 1.1475, dropping just below the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken below the upper level of the 20-period moving average (MA), which had been acting as support, and on the daily chart, a reversal has occurred after touching the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands. While the market expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to keep rates unchanged at 4.50% today, we will be watching closely to see if comments from key officials shift market sentiment.

Despite the European ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, released yesterday, rebounding sharply from 11.6 the previous month to 35.3, the euro fell against the yen.The euro/yen pair fell from 167.619 to 166.714. It dropped from the +2σ to the -3σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands. While it has broken below the 10-period moving average (MA), which had been providing support on the 4-hour chart, the uptrend along the 10-MA on the daily chart remains intact.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s trade balance (customs-based) and machinery orders at 8:50; Australia’s Westpac Leading Index at 9:30; the UK’s Consumer Price Index, Retail Price Index, and Producer Price Index at 15:00; the Eurozone’s current account balance at 17:00;South Africa’s Consumer Price Index; at 20:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index; at 21:30, U.S. Housing Starts; at 23:30, remarks by German Bundesbank Presidentremarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel; at 24:15, remarks by Canadian BOC Governor McClem; at 27:00, the U.S. FOMC policy rate decision and statement; and at 27:30, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell.We’ll be watching closely to see if the euro, which has been weakening against the yen, will show signs of recovery.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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