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Will Market Participants Keep a Close Eye on the Swiss Franc’s Potential for Recovery After Hitting a Low?

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Will Market Participants Keep a Close Eye on the Swiss Franc’s Potential for Recovery After Hitting a Low?

07.05.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. Retail Sales in Europe
  2. U.S. FOMC Policy Rate and Statement Announcement

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the Canadian dollar fell against the yen after the Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index for April, released yesterday, came in lower than expected at 47.9, down from 51.3 the previous month. The CAD/JPY pair fell from 104.198 to 103.249.The decline followed the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is searching for direction just below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), while on the daily chart, it is currently rebounding after touching the 75-period MA.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc was the weakest alongside the U.S. dollar during U.S. trading hours. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 174.867 to 172.875. The decline followed the -3σ line of the hourly Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the price broke below the 20-day moving average (MA), which had been acting as support, with a real-body candle; on the daily chart, the price is currently stagnating just below the 20-day MA. We will need to monitor the direction closely to see if the Swiss franc continues to weaken during today’s U.S. trading hours.

Today’s economic indicators include New Zealand’s employment report at 7:45, Germany’s new manufacturing orders at 15:00, the UK’s construction PMI at 17:30, and the Eurozone’s retail sales at 18:00,8:00 PM: U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index; 11:30 PM: U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories; 3:00 AM: U.S. FOMC Policy Rate Decision and Statement; 3:30 AM: U.S. Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference; and 4:30 AM: U.S. Consumer Credit Balance.We want to carefully assess the Swiss franc’s potential for recovery after hitting a record low.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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