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Will the rising U.S. dollar be affected by remarks from key figures, or should we wait and see?

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Will the rising U.S. dollar be affected by remarks from key figures, or should we wait and see?

16.04.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. Japan: Machinery Orders
  2. European Consumer Price Index

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose against the euro after the April New York Fed Manufacturing Index, released yesterday, improved to -8.1 from -20.0 the previous month.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1378 to 1.1264. On the hourly chart, the price moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the price has pulled back from the +2σ level of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, a corrective decline is observed following three consecutive days of gains.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc was the weakest toward the end of U.S. trading hours. The CHF/JPY pair fell from 175.781 to 173.685. It dropped from the +2σ to the -2σ levels of the hourly Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the pair temporarily broke below the 20-period moving average (MA), which had been acting as support, and on the daily chart, the RSI has pulled back from 74. We will need to carefully assess whether the Swiss franc will continue to weaken during today’s European trading session.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s machinery orders at 8:50, Australia’s Westpac Leading Economic Index at 9:30, the UK’s Consumer Price Index and Retail Price Index at 15:00, the Eurozone’s current account balance at 17:00,at 6:00 PM, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index; at 8:00 PM, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index and South African Retail Sales; at 9:30 PM, U.S. Retail Sales; at 10:15 PM, U.S. Industrial Production; at 10:45 PM, the Bank of Canada’s policy rate announcement and statement;U.S. Business Inventories and U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index at 23:00, a press conference by BOC Governor Macleam at 23:30, U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories, and remarks by Fed Chair Powell at 26:30.I want to carefully monitor the market direction to see if the rising U.S. dollar will shift in response to these key figures’ remarks.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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