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Should We Be Wary of Further Downside Potential for the Pound, Which Has Fallen Sharply Against the Yen?

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Should We Be Wary of Further Downside Potential for the Pound, Which Has Fallen Sharply Against the Yen?

07.04.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. Japan Economic Sentiment Index
  2. Germany: Industrial Production

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar rose against the euro despite the fact that average hourly earnings in the U.S. March employment report, released on the 4th, fell to 3.8% year-over-year from 4.0% the previous month.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.1107 to 1.0926. On the hourly chart, the price moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has begun to decline from 79, and on the daily chart, a divergence has been observed between the candlesticks and the RSI.

Among European currencies, the pound continued to fall against the yen. The GBP/JPY pair fell from 191.750 to 187.611. The decline followed the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, a band walk along the -2σ Bollinger Band was observed, while on the daily chart, the price temporarily broke through the -3σ Bollinger Band. We will be watching closely to see if the pound continues to weaken at the start of the week.

Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s Monthly Labor Survey—Total Cash Wages at 8:30, Japan’s Economic Sentiment Index at 14:00, Germany’sIndustrial Production, Germany’s Trade Balance, and the UK’s Halifax House Price Index at 15:00; Eurozone Retail Sales at 18:00; remarks by Fed Governor Kugler at 23:30; and U.S. Consumer Credit at 28:00. Investors should watch for further downside potential in the pound, which has fallen sharply against the yen.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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