Will the falling pound change direction due to end-of-month factors? All eyes are on the situation.

Will the falling pound change direction due to end-of-month factors? All eyes are on the situation.

31.03.2025

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar fell against the euro despite the U.S. February PCE deflator, released on the 28th, coming in higher than expected at 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.6% the previous month.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0765 to 1.0844, surging to the resistance level of the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI rose from 40 to 60 and reached the +3σ Bollinger Band. On the daily chart, the 200-period SMA has turned into a support line.

European currencies saw the pound fall against the yen despite the fact that the UK’s February retail sales figures, released on the 28th, rose to 2.2% year-on-year from 1.0% the previous month. The GBP/JPY pair fell from 195.720 to 193.752. On the hourly chart, the price moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it.On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen from the +3σ to the -2σ levels of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it has fallen below the 10-day moving average (MA) line, which had previously served as support.

Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s industrial production, retail sales, and department store and supermarket sales at 8:50; New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index at 9:00; Japan’s housing starts at 14:00; Germany’s import price index and retail sales at 15:00;South Africa’s money supply at 9:00 PM, Germany’s Consumer Price Index at 9:00 PM, the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index at 10:45 PM, and the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index at 11:30 PM. We will be watching closely to see if the falling pound changes direction due to end-of-month factors.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed