All eyes are on whether the falling pound will change course due to end-of-month factors

All eyes are on whether the falling pound will change direction due to end-of-month factors

31.03.2025

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar fell against the euro despite the U.S. February PCE deflator—released on the 28th—coming in higher than expected at 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.6% the previous month. The euro rose against the dollar from 1.0765 to 1.0844.It surged to the resistance level marked by the 200-period SMA on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI rose from 40 to 60 and reached the +3σ level of the Bollinger Bands. On the daily chart, the 200-period SMA has turned into a support line.

European currencies saw the pound fall against the yen, despite the fact that the UK’s February retail sales figures, released on the 28th, showed a year-over-year increase of 2.2%, up from 1.0% the previous month. The GBP/JPY pair fell from 195.720 to 193.752.On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen from the +3σ to the -2σ levels of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it has fallen below the 10-period MA, which had previously served as support.

Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s industrial production, retail sales, and department store and supermarket sales at 8:50; New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index at 9:00; Japan’s housing starts at 14:00; Germany’sImport Price Index, German Retail Sales, and South African Money Supply; at 21:00, the German Consumer Price Index; at 22:45, the U.S. Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index; and at 23:30, the U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index.We will be watching closely to see if the falling pound changes direction due to end-of-month factors.