All eyes are on whether the falling pound will change direction due to end-of-month factors

All eyes are on whether the falling pound will change direction due to end-of-month factors

31.03.2025

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar fell against the euro despite the U.S. February PCE deflator, released on the 28th, coming in higher than expected at 2.8% year-over-year, up from 2.6% the previous month.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0765 to 1.0844, surging to the resistance level of the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the RSI rose from 40 to 60 and reached the +3σ Bollinger Band. On the daily chart, the 200-period SMA has turned into a support line.

European currencies saw the pound fall against the yen despite the fact that the UK’s February retail sales figures, released on the 28th, rose to 2.2% year-on-year from 1.0% the previous month. The GBP/JPY pair fell from 195.720 to 193.752. It moved from above the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart to below it.On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen from the +3σ to the -2σ of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it has fallen below the 10-day moving average (MA) line, which had previously served as support.

Today’s economic indicators include Japan’s industrial production, retail sales, and department store and supermarket sales at 8:50; New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence at 9:00; Japan’s housing starts at 14:00; Germany’s import price index and retail sales at 15:00;South Africa’s Money Supply, at 9:00 PM: Germany’s Consumer Price Index, at 10:45 PM: U.S. Chicago PMI, and at 11:30 PM: U.S. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. We will be watching closely to see if the falling pound changes direction due to end-of-month factors.