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Should We Keep an Eye on the Euro/Dollar’s Potential Rebound After Four Consecutive Days of Declines?

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Should We Keep an Eye on a Potential Rebound in the Euro/Dollar Pair, Which Has Been Falling for Four Consecutive Days?

25.03.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
  2. Germany's IFO Business Climate Index

With the U.S. dollar generally weakening against the yen the previous day, the Canadian dollar rose against the yen. The CAD/JPY pair rose from 103.959 to 105.487, moving in line with the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the pair broke through the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) line—which had appeared to act as resistance—without hesitation, and on the daily chart, it has set a new high for the month. We will need to monitor price movements during U.S. trading hours to see if the Canadian dollar’s strength continues.

Among European currencies, the euro fell against the U.S. dollar for the fourth consecutive day. The euro/dollar exchange rate dropped from 1.0858 to 1.0782.On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the downtrend along the 20-period MA continues, and on the daily chart, the price has closed below the 10-period MA, which had appeared to be providing support. We will need to monitor the direction of the euro to see if its weakness continues during U.S. trading hours.

Today, the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting will be released at 8:50; the South African BER Consumer Confidence Index at 17:00; and the GermanIFO Business Climate Index, at 21:40, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Kugler, at 22:00, the U.S. Housing Price Index and the U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, at 22:05, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams:Speech by NY Fed President Williams, at 23:00: U.S. New Home Sales, U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and at 25:00: Remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel. We will be watching for a rebound in the euro/dollar pair, which has been falling for four consecutive days.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management with a particular focus on foreign exchange markets, and he also has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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