Caution over upside potential in USD/JPY following a rebound

Caution over upside potential in USD/JPY following a rebound

25.02.2025

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar saw a slight rebound against the yen. The USD/JPY pair traded between 148.847 and 149.865. On the hourly chart, the price broke above the 20-period moving average. On the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded from the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and a similar price movement was observed on the daily chart. We will need to monitor the upside potential to see if the U.S. dollar continues to rise against the yen.

European currencies saw the euro fluctuate against the U.S. dollar after the final reading of the Eurozone’s January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), released yesterday, remained unchanged from the previous month at 2.7% year-on-year.The EUR/USD pair traded between 1.0453 and 1.0528. Price action was seen fluctuating around the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, a rebound has occurred with support from the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), while on the daily chart, the pair is on the verge of breaking above the resistance zone formed by the 75-period MA.

Today, at 8:50 AM, Japan’s Business Services Price Index; at 4:00 PM, Germany’s Real GDP; at 5:00 PM, Taiwan’s Industrial Production; at 5:30 PM, Hong Kong’s Trade Balance; at 7:00 PM, Germany’sremarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel, Brazil’s Broad Consumer Price Index at 9:00 PM, Hungary’s policy rate and statement at 10:00 PM, the U.S. Housing Price Index and S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 11:00 PM, the U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index at midnight, and remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bar at 1:45 AM.We should remain cautious about the upside potential of the USD/JPY pair, which has rebounded and is rising.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed