Concerns over further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which fell on weaker-than-expected retail sales

Concerns over further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which fell on weaker-than-expected retail sales

17.02.2025

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen after U.S. January retail sales, released on the 14th, came in at -0.4%, down from the previous month’s 0.4%. The USD/JPY pair fell from 153.137 to 152.031. The decline was driven by resistance at the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, a pullback occurred upon touching the 200-period EMA, and on the daily chart, a pullback from the 20-period MA was observed, similar to the 4-hour chart.

European currencies weakened against the yen, mirroring the trend of the U.S. dollar. The euro/yen pair fell from 160.256 to 159.438, moving across the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the 75-period MA is barely holding as support. On the daily chart, the pair has pulled back from the 20-period MA. We will be watching closely to see if the euro continues to decline against the yen.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s preliminary real GDP at 8:50, the UK’s Rightmove house prices at 9:01, Thailand’s real GDP at 11:30, Indonesia’s trade balance at 13:00, Japan’s industrial production and tertiary industry activity index at 13:30, and the Eurozone’strade balance, at 22:15: Canada’s housing starts, at 22:30: Canada’s international securities turnover, and at 23:30: U.S. Fed President Harker (Philadelphia Fed). We should be cautious about further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which fell following weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data.