Concerns Over Further Declines in the U.S. Dollar Amid Weaker-than-Expected Retail Sales
17.02.2025
- Canada: Housing Starts
- Japan: Industrial Production
Last weekend, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen after U.S. January retail sales figures released on the 14th came in at -0.4%, down from the previous month’s 0.4%. The USD/JPY pair fell from 153.137 to 152.031.The decline was driven by resistance at the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the price pulled back after touching the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), and on the daily chart, a pullback from the 20-period MA occurred, similar to the hourly chart.
European currencies, like the U.S. dollar, weakened against the yen. The euro/yen pair fell from 160.256 to 159.438, with price action straddling the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the 75-period MA is barely holding as support.On the daily chart, the pair has rebounded from the 20-period moving average. We will be watching closely to see if the euro continues to decline against the yen.
Today, Japan’s preliminary real GDP figures will be released at 8:50, the UK’s Rightmove House Price Index at 9:01, Thailand’s real GDP at 11:30, Indonesia’s trade balance at 13:00, and Japan’sIndustrial Production and Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity Index, at 1:00 PM; the Eurozone’s trade balance at 7:00 PM; Canada’s housing starts at 10:15 PM; Canada’s international securities turnover at 10:30 PM; and remarks by Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, at 11:30 PM.We should remain cautious about the downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which fell following weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
