Concerns over further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which fell on weaker-than-expected retail sales

Concerns over further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which fell on weaker-than-expected retail sales

17.02.2025

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen after U.S. January retail sales, released on the 14th, came in at -0.4%, down from the previous month’s 0.4%. The USD/JPY pair fell from 153.137 to 152.031. The decline was driven by resistance at the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, a pullback occurred upon touching the 200-period EMA, and on the daily chart, a pullback from the 20-period MA was observed, similar to the 4-hour chart.

European currencies weakened against the yen, mirroring the trend of the U.S. dollar. The euro/yen pair fell from 160.256 to 159.438, moving across the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the 75-period MA is barely holding as support. On the daily chart, the pair has pulled back from the 20-period MA. We will be watching closely to see if the euro continues to decline against the yen.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s preliminary real GDP at 8:50, UK Rightmove house prices at 9:01, Thailand’s real GDP at 11:30, Indonesia’s trade balance at 13:00, Japan’s industrial production and tertiary industry activity index at 13:30, and the Eurozone’strade balance, at 22:15: Canada’s housing starts, at 22:30: Canada’s international securities turnover, and at 23:30: U.S. Fed President Harker (Philadelphia Fed). We should remain cautious about further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which fell following weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed