Should we focus on the upside potential of the rising USD/JPY pair?

Should we focus on the upside potential of the rising USD/JPY pair?

12.02.2025

In the previous day's U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen. The USD/JPY pair climbed from 151.655 to 152.596. It rose from the -2σ to the +3σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the candlesticks have already extended to just below the 75-day moving average (MA), and on the daily chart, the price has rebounded and recovered from the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) line, which had appeared poised to be broken. We will be closely monitoring whether the US dollar continues to rise following remarks from key officials during US trading hours.

Among European currencies, the euro rebounded against the U.S. dollar. The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0292 to 1.0381, breaking through the resistance zone formed by the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the hourly chart. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has rebounded without testing the recent low, and on the daily chart, the RSI—which had fallen to 40—is recovering toward the midpoint. We will need to assess the situation carefully to determine whether the price action during European trading hours will signal a shift in market sentiment.

Today’s economic indicators include the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 9:00 PM, the U.S. Consumer Price Index at 10:30 PM, remarks by MPC member Green and Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony at 12:00 AM, U.S. weekly crude oil inventories at 12:30 AM,at 2:00 AM, remarks by German Bundesbank President Nagel and U.S. Atlanta Fed President Bostic; at 3:00 AM, the U.S. 10-year Treasury auction; at 4:00 AM, the U.S. budget balance; and at 7:05 AM the following day, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Waller. We will be closely monitoring the upside potential of the rising USD/JPY pair.