Investors should watch for the U.S. dollar’s upward trend at the start of the month

Investors should watch for the U.S. dollar’s upward trend at the start of the month

03.02.2025

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar rose against the euro after U.S. December personal income data showed increases in both income and spending compared to the previous month.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0432 to 1.0350. On the hourly chart, the candlesticks fell from the +3σ to the -3σ Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the price broke below the 200 SMA, which had been providing support, and on the daily chart, the RSI fell from 60 to 45.

Despite the preliminary January consumer price index for Germany, released on January 31, showing a year-over-year decline from 2.6% in the previous month to 2.3%, the euro rose against the yen.The euro/yen pair rose from 159.916 to 161.479. On the hourly chart, the price moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded from the -3σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it avoided breaking below January’s low.

Today’s schedule includes Australian retail sales and Indonesia’s manufacturing PMI at 9:30, the Philippines’ manufacturing PMI at 9:30, India’s manufacturing PMI at 14:00, Turkey’s manufacturing PMI and consumer price index at 16:00, Hong Kong’s fourth-quarter GDP at 17:30,at 5:30 PM, the Swiss Manufacturing PMI; at 5:55 PM, the German Manufacturing PMI; at 6:00 PM, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI; at 6:30 PM, the UK Manufacturing PMI; at 7:00 PM, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index; at 11:45 PM, the US PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index; and at 2:30 AM, remarks by Bostic, President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve.We intend to carefully monitor the US dollar’s firm start to the month.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed