Should We Keep an Eye on the U.S. Dollar’s Firm Start to the Month?

Should We Keep an Eye on the U.S. Dollar’s Firm Start to the Month?

03.02.2025

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar rose against the euro after the U.S. December personal income report showed increases in both income and spending compared to the previous month.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0432 to 1.0350. On the hourly chart, the candlesticks moved from the +3σ to the -3σ levels of the Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the price broke below the 200 SMA—which had been providing support—with a real-body candle, and on the daily chart, the RSI has fallen from 60 to 45.

European currencies rose against the yen, even though the preliminary January consumer price index for Germany, released on January 31, showed a year-over-year decline from 2.6% the previous month to 2.3%.The euro/yen pair rose from 159.916 to 161.479. On the hourly chart, the price moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded from the -3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it avoided hitting a new low for January.

Today’s schedule includes Australian retail sales and Indonesia’s manufacturing PMI at 9:30, the Philippines’ manufacturing PMI at 9:30, India’s manufacturing PMI at 14:00, Turkey’s manufacturing PMI at 16:00,Turkey’s Consumer Price Index, Hong Kong’s Q4 GDP at 5:30 p.m., Switzerland’s Manufacturing PMI at 5:30 p.m., Germany’s Manufacturing PMI at 5:55 p.m., the Eurozone’s Manufacturing PMI at 6:00 p.m., the UK’s Manufacturing PMI at 6:30 p.m.,at 19:00, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index; at 23:45, the U.S. PMI; and at 26:30, remarks by Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed. We intend to carefully monitor the U.S. dollar’s firm start to the month.