Investors should watch for the U.S. dollar's upward trend at the start of the month

Investors should watch for the U.S. dollar's upward trend at the start of the month

03.02.2025

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar rose against the euro after U.S. December personal income data showed increases in both income and spending compared to the previous month.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0432 to 1.0350. On the hourly chart, the candlesticks fell from the +3σ to the -3σ of the Bollinger Bands. On the 4-hour chart, the price broke below the 200 SMA, which had been providing support, with a real body, and on the daily chart, the RSI has fallen from 60 to 45.

Despite the preliminary January consumer price index for Germany, released on January 31, showing a year-over-year decline from 2.6% in the previous month to 2.3%, the euro rose against the yen.The euro/yen pair rose from 159.916 to 161.479. On the hourly chart, the price moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the 4-hour chart, the price rebounded from the -3σ line of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it avoided hitting a new low for January.

Today’s schedule includes Australian retail sales and Indonesia’s manufacturing PMI at 9:30, the Philippines’ manufacturing PMI at 9:30, India’s manufacturing PMI at 14:00, Turkey’s manufacturing PMI and consumer price index at 16:00, and Hong Kong’s fourth-quarter GDP at 17:30,at 5:30 PM, the Swiss Manufacturing PMI; at 5:55 PM, the German Manufacturing PMI; at 6:00 PM, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI; at 6:30 PM, the UK Manufacturing PMI; at 7:00 PM, the Eurozone Consumer Price Index; at 11:45 PM, the US PMI Purchasing Managers' Index; and at 2:30 AM, remarks by Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed.We intend to carefully monitor the US dollar’s firm early-month price movements.