Concerns over further downside potential for the weak Swiss franc
30.01.2025
- U.S. Existing Home Sales Pending
- ECB Policy Rate and Statement Release
In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose slightly against the euro after the FOMC kept the policy interest rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50%.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0443 to 1.0382. On the hourly chart, the price moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the 20-period MA is acting as a resistance level, while on the daily chart, the price is being held back by the 75-period MA.
Among European currencies, the Swiss franc fell against the yen. The CHF/JPY pair dropped from 172.302 to 170.841. It fell from the +2σ to the -2σ levels on the hourly Bollinger Bands.On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen to the -3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it appears poised to break this month’s low. We will need to monitor price movements during European trading hours to see if the Swiss franc continues to weaken against the yen.
Today’s schedule includes remarks by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himinono at 3:10 PM, France’s Q4 GDP and consumer spending at 3:30 PM, Germany’s import price index and Switzerland’s trade balance at 4:00 PM, the KOF Leading Index at 5:00 PM, Germany’s Q4 GDP at 6:00 PM, and the UK’smortgage approvals, at 19:00: Eurozone Q4 GDP, at 22:15: Eurozone ECB policy rate and statement, at 22:30: U.S. initial jobless claims, at 22:45: remarks by ECB President Lagarde, and at 24:00: U.S. pending home sales. We should remain cautious about the downside potential of the weakening Swiss franc.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
