Caution over further downside potential for the weak Swiss franc

Caution over further downside potential for the weak Swiss franc

30.01.2025

In the previous day’s U.S. currency trading, the U.S. dollar rose slightly against the euro after the FOMC kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50%.The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0443 to 1.0382. On the hourly chart, the price moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the 20-period MA is acting as a resistance level, while on the daily chart, the price is facing resistance at the 75-period MA.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc fell against the yen. The CHF/JPY pair dropped from 172.302 to 170.841. On the hourly chart, it fell from the +2σ to the -2σ Bollinger Band.On the 4-hour chart, the price has fallen to the -3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, and on the daily chart, it appears poised to break this month’s low. We will need to monitor price movements during European trading hours to see if the Swiss franc continues to weaken against the yen.

Today’s schedule includes remarks by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himinono at 3:10 PM, France’s Q4 GDP and consumer spending at 3:30 PM, Germany’s import price index and Switzerland’s trade balance at 4:00 PM, the KOF Leading Index at 5:00 PM, Germany’s Q4 GDP at 6:00 PM, and the UK’smortgage approvals, at 19:00: Eurozone Q4 GDP, at 22:15: Eurozone ECB policy rate and statement release, at 22:30: U.S. initial jobless claims, at 22:45: remarks by ECB President Lagarde, and at 24:00: U.S. pending home sales. We should remain vigilant regarding the downside potential of the weakening Swiss franc.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed