Should We Be Wary of Further Downside Potential in Cross-Yen Pairs?
16.01.2025
- Canada: Housing Starts
- Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen after the U.S. December Consumer Price Index (CPI), released yesterday, showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, up from 2.7% the previous month, while the core index—excluding food and energy—declined to 3.2% year-over-year from 3.3%.The USD/JPY pair fell from 158.078 to 155.954. The candlestick fell to the -3σ level of the hourly Bollinger Bands.
European currencies fell against the yen as the euro dropped following yesterday’s release of the Eurozone’s November industrial production data, which showed a year-over-year decline of 1.9%, worsening from the previous month’s 1.2% decline. The euro/yen pair fell from 162.884 to 160.789. The hourly RSI dropped to 18.On the daily chart, the pair has hit a new low for the month, and on the weekly chart, prices are falling as the 20-day moving average acts as a resistance line.
Today’s schedule includes the Australian unemployment rate at 9:30, remarks by BOC Deputy Governor Gravel at 14:30, UK GDP and UK industrial production at 16:00, and the Eurozonetrade balance, at 21:30 the release of the minutes from the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council meeting, at 22:15 Canadian housing starts, at 22:30 U.S. initial jobless claims and U.S. retail sales,U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, U.S. Import Price Index; at 24:00, U.S. Business Inventories and U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index; and at 25:00, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams. We should remain highly vigilant regarding the downside potential of cross-yen pairs that have fallen.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
