Should we be wary of further downside potential in falling yen crosses?
16.01.2025
- Canada: Housing Starts
- Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index
In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen after the December U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) released yesterday showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, up from 2.7% the previous month, while the core index—excluding food and energy—declined to 3.2% year-over-year from 3.3%.The USD/JPY pair fell from 158.078 to 155.954. The candlestick fell to the -3σ level of the hourly Bollinger Bands.
European currencies fell against the yen after yesterday’s release of the Eurozone’s November industrial production data showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, worsening from the previous month’s 1.2% drop. The euro/yen pair fell from 162.884 to 160.789. The hourly RSI dropped to 18. On the daily chart, the pair has hit a new low for the month, and on the weekly chart, prices are declining as the 20-day moving average acts as a resistance line.
Today’s schedule includes the Australian unemployment rate at 9:30, remarks by BOC Deputy Governor Gravel at 14:30, UK GDP and UK industrial production at 16:00, the Eurozone trade balance at 19:00, and the release of the ECB meeting minutes at 21:30.at 10:15 PM, Canadian housing starts; at 10:30 PM, U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. retail sales, U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, and U.S. import price index; at 12:00 AM, U.S. business inventories and U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index; and at 1:00 AM, remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams.We should remain highly vigilant regarding the downside potential of the falling cross-yen pairs.
Author: Keisuke Sakurai
