Should investors be wary of further downside potential in falling cross-yen pairs?

Should investors be wary of further downside potential in falling cross-yen pairs?

16.01.2025

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen after the December U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) released yesterday showed a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, up from 2.7% the previous month, while the core index—excluding food and energy—declined to 3.2% year-over-year from 3.3%.The USD/JPY pair fell from 158.078 to 155.954. The candlestick fell to the -3σ level of the hourly Bollinger Bands.

European currencies fell against the yen after yesterday’s release of the Eurozone’s November industrial production data showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, worsening from the previous month’s 1.2% drop. The euro/yen pair fell from 162.884 to 160.789. The hourly RSI dropped to 18. On the daily chart, the pair has hit a new low for the month, and on the weekly chart, prices are falling as the 20-day moving average acts as a resistance line.

Today’s schedule includes the Australian unemployment rate at 9:30, remarks by BOC Deputy Governor Gravel at 14:30, UK GDP and industrial production at 16:00, the Eurozone trade balance at 19:00, the release of the ECB meeting minutes at 21:30,at 10:15 PM: Canadian housing starts; at 10:30 PM: U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. retail sales, U.S. Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Index, and U.S. import price index; at 12:00 AM: U.S. business inventories and U.S. NAHB Housing Market Index; and at 1:00 AM: remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Williams.We should remain highly vigilant regarding the downside potential of the falling cross-yen pairs.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed