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Despite Strong U.S. Employment Data, Caution Advised Regarding Further Downside Potential for the U.S. Dollar Against the Yen

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Despite Strong U.S. Employment Data, Caution Advised Regarding Further Downside Potential for the U.S. Dollar Against the Yen

13.01.2025

Today's Highlights
  1. U.S. Fiscal Balance
  2. Turkey: Current Account Balance

Last weekend, the U.S. dollar rose immediately following the release of the U.S. December employment report on the 10th, as the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% the previous month to 4.1% and nonfarm payrolls came in higher than the market forecast of 164,000, reaching 256,000.The USD/JPY pair rose from 157.622 to 158.871. However, the momentum failed to hold, and the pair subsequently fell back to 157.231. Since the daily chart shows two consecutive days of declines, traders should remain cautious regarding price movements during U.S. trading hours today.

Among European currencies, the pound was the weakest during U.S. trading hours. The GBP/USD pair fell from 1.2320 to 1.2192. The decline continued as the price encountered resistance at the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the candlesticks have reached the -3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, and similar price action is evident on the daily chart as well. We will be closely monitoring price movements during European trading hours to see if the pound continues to weaken against the U.S. dollar.

Today's economic indicators include New Zealand housing permits at 6:45,11:00 China Trade Balance, 14:30 Sweden Expected Price Trends, 16:00 Turkey Current Account, 17:00 Czech Republic Retail Sales, 18:00 Czech Republic Current Account,at 19:30: India’s Consumer Price Index; at 20:00: Canada’s Leading Economic Index; at 22:00: the Philippines’ Current Account Balance; at 24:00: the U.S. Employment Trends Index; at 25:30: the U.S. 6-Month Treasury Bill Auction; and at 28:00: the U.S. Budget Balance.Despite strong U.S. employment data, the U.S. dollar has fallen against the yen, so we must remain highly vigilant regarding its downside potential.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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