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Should We Be Wary of the U.S. Dollar's Upside Potential Following the Rise in the CPI?

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Should We Be Wary of the U.S. Dollar’s Upside Potential Following the Rise in the CPI?

12.12.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. Europe: ECB Policy Rate and Statement Release
  2. U.S. Producer Price Index

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar rose against the yen after the U.S. November Consumer Price Index, released yesterday, showed a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.6% the previous month.The USD/JPY pair rose from 151.013 to 152.833. It moved upward from below the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart to above it. On the daily chart, the price has broken above the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), which had been acting as an upper resistance level, so we will be closely monitoring price movements during U.S. trading hours.

Among European currencies, the Swiss franc rose against the yen ahead of today’s SNB policy rate announcement. The CHF/JPY pair rose from 170.871 to 172.902. It moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart to above it.On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has risen from 55 to 64, and on the daily chart, the pair has broken above the 200-SMA resistance line. We will need to monitor price movements following the policy rate announcement to see if the Swiss franc continues to rise against the yen.

Today’s schedule includes Japan’s foreign and domestic securities investment data at 8:50, the UK’s RICS Housing Price Index at 9:01, Australia’s employment statistics at 9:30, Turkey’s current account balance at 16:00,Sweden’s Consumer Price Index at 9:30, the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) policy rate and statement at 5:30 p.m., SNB Governor Schlegel’s press conference at 6:00 p.m., India’s Consumer Price Index at 7:30 p.m., Brazil’s retail sales at 9:00 p.m.,Mexico’s industrial production, 22:15: ECB policy rate and statement, 22:30: U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. Producer Price Index, and Canadian housing permits, and 22:45: ECB President Lagarde’s press conference.We should pay close attention to the upside potential of the U.S. dollar, which has strengthened on the back of rising U.S. CPI.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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