Should we be wary of shifts in currency strength driven by geopolitical risks?

Should we be wary of shifts in currency strength driven by geopolitical risks?

20.11.2024

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the dollar fluctuated against the yen after the U.S. October housing starts data, released yesterday, showed a deterioration from the previous month’s 0.5% decline to a 3.1% decline. The USD/JPY pair traded between 153.280 and 154.794, with price action straddling the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart.On the daily chart, the price continues to find support at the 20-day moving average, albeit barely, so we should pay close attention to the direction of the market during U.S. trading hours.

European currencies weakened following reports of missile attacks by Ukraine on Russia, with the euro becoming the weakest currency since the start of European trading hours. The euro/yen pair traded between 161.487 and 163.922. Price action was seen crossing the 20-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the daily chart, the candlesticks have extended to the -3σ level of the Bollinger Bands, so we will be watching for a rebound during European trading hours.

Today’s key economic indicators include the UK Consumer Price Index, UK Producer Price Index, and UK Retail Price Index at 4:00 PM, the German Producer Price Index at 4:00 PM, the US MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 9:00 PM, remarks by ECB President Lagarde at 10:00 PM, remarks by Fed Vice Chair Barr at 12:00 AM, US weekly crude oil inventories at 12:30 AM,at 1:00 AM: Remarks by Fed Governor Cook; and at 3:00 AM: the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction. We should pay close attention to shifts in currency strength driven by geopolitical risks.

Past Market Reports

1. 17.04.2026New

   Will the market wait and see how much further the U.S. dollar can rise against the yen?

2. 16.04.2026New

   Will the weakening Swiss franc recover? Attention is turning to price movements during European trading hours.

3. 15.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely keeping a close eye on the upside potential of the euro, which has risen against the U.S. dollar

4. 14.04.2026New

   Should we keep an eye on remarks by key figures in the U.S. and try to gauge the direction of currency strength?

5. 13.04.2026New

   Market participants are likely watching for signs of a rebound in the Canadian dollar, which fell against the U.S. dollar following the release of employment figures

6. 10.04.2026

   Will the weakening Swiss franc continue to strengthen against the yen, or should we wait and see?

7. 09.04.2026

   Will the U.S. dollar, which has fallen against the yen, continue its downward slide, or should we wait and see how the market moves?

8. 08.04.2026

   Should we keep an eye on the upside for European currencies that have risen against the U.S. dollar?

9. 07.04.2026

   Market participants may be wary of further downside potential for the U.S. dollar, which has weakened amid concerns over the situation in Iran

10. 06.04.2026

    Investors should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility while major markets are closed