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With the Swiss franc facing resistance due to falling CPI, should we focus on its downside potential?

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With the Swiss franc facing resistance due to falling CPI, should we focus on its downside potential?

04.11.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. France: Manufacturing PMI
  2. NZ: RBNZ Releases Financial Stability Report

Last weekend, following the release of the U.S. October employment report on the 1st, which showed a sharp decline in nonfarm payrolls from 254,000 the previous month to 12,000, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen immediately after the data was released.The USD/JPY pair fell from 152.834 to 151.804. It subsequently recovered, eventually rising to 153.089. Since the pair opened with a downward gap during today’s Asian session, traders should remain cautious regarding price movements during the European session.

European currencies saw the Swiss franc weaken against the yen after Switzerland’s October consumer price index, released on the 1st, showed a year-over-year increase of 0.6%, down from 0.8% the previous month. The franc-yen exchange rate fell from 176.625 to 175.407.The 20-period moving average on the hourly chart has shifted from above to below the price. On the daily chart, the price has retreated from the +2σ Bollinger Band back toward the centerline, so it will be worth watching whether this price movement continues during U.S. trading hours.

Today, at 16:00, Turkey’s Consumer Price Index; at 17:00, Brazil’s Consumer Price Index and Hungary’s Manufacturing PMI; at 17:50, France’s Manufacturing PMI; and at 17:55, Germany’sManufacturing PMI, at 6:00 PM the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, at 6:30 PM the Eurozone Investor Sentiment Index, at 7:00 PM remarks by Nagel, President of the German Federal Bank, at 12:00 AM the U.S. Manufacturing Orders Index, at 3:00 AM the U.S. 3-Year Treasury Auction, andand at 29:00, the RBNZ Financial Stability Report is scheduled for release. With the Swiss franc facing resistance to further gains due to falling CPI, we will be watching for potential downside movement.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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