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Should We Wait and See Where the Euro Is Headed, Given That Its Downside Is Limited by an Improvement in the German PMI?

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Should We Wait and See Where the Euro Is Headed, Given That Its Downside Is Limited by an Improvement in the German PMI?

25.10.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. France: Consumer Confidence Index
  2. Retail Sales (Canada)

In the U.S. currency market yesterday, the U.S. dollar fell against the euro despite the fact that the preliminary October PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) figures released yesterday showed the composite index improving to 54.3 from 54.0 the previous month, with both the services and manufacturing sectors exceeding their previous readings.The EUR/USD pair rose from 1.0770 to 1.0829. On the hourly chart, the price moved from below the 20-period moving average (MA) to above it. On the daily chart, the price is already trading above the 20-period MA.

European currencies saw the euro fall slightly against the yen after preliminary figures for Germany’s October services and manufacturing PMIs, released yesterday, both came in higher than the previous month.While other yen crosses extended their losses, the euro/yen pair remained within the range of 164.749 to 163.803, finding support at the 75-period moving average on the hourly chart. On the daily chart, the pair is currently searching for direction just below the 200-period simple moving average, so we will be watching price action during European trading hours closely.

Today, the UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey is scheduled for 8:01, the Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index for 8:30, Singapore Industrial Production and the Japan Economic Sentiment Index for 14:00, and the FranceConsumer Confidence Index, at 14:00 Turkey’s Capacity Utilization Rate, at 17:00 Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index and the Eurozone’s Money Supply, at 19:30 Russia’sKey Interest Rates, at 21:30: Canada’s Retail Sales and U.S. Durable Goods Orders, at 23:00: U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and at 24:20: Remarks by Bank of England Governor Bailey. I intend to cautiously monitor the direction of the euro, whose downside has been limited by the improvement in the German PMI.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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All eyes are on whether the euro, which rose slightly, will continue to gain ground during European trading hours
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