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Will the BOC Cut the Policy Rate by 0.5%? Market Participants Are Watching the Canadian Dollar Closely

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Will the BOC Cut the Policy Rate by 0.5%? Market Participants Are Watching the Canadian Dollar Closely

23.10.2024

Today's Highlights
  1. Canada: BOC Policy Rate and Statement Release
  2. Press Conference by BOC Governor MacLem of Canada

In yesterday’s U.S. currency trading, the Canadian dollar rose against the yen ahead of today’s BOC policy rate announcement. The CAD/JPY pair rose from 108.781 to 109.385, with the rally tracking the 20-period moving average (MA) on the hourly chart.On the 4-hour chart, the 10-period moving average (MA) is acting as support, while on the daily chart, the pair is in the process of breaking above the resistance line formed by the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA). Since a 0.5% rate cut is expected from the BOC today, traders should be cautious of price movements immediately following the announcement.

Among European currencies, the euro weakened slightly, following the Japanese yen. The euro fell against the U.S. dollar from 1.0838 to 1.0792.On the hourly chart, the price has moved from above the 20-period moving average (MA) to below it. On the 4-hour chart, the 20-period MA is acting as resistance, causing the price to pull back, and on the daily chart, the price has already closed below the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) support line. On the weekly chart, the price has fallen to levels not seen since late July of this year, so we will be watching to see if a rebound occurs during European trading hours.

Today’s schedule includes the Singapore Consumer Price Index at 14:00, the Turkey Consumer Confidence Index at 16:00, the South Africa Consumer Price Index and Taiwan Industrial Production at 17:00, the U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications Index at 20:00, and the Bank of Canada’s policy rate announcement and statement at 22:45,at 11:00 PM, remarks by ECB President Lagarde and U.S. Existing Home Sales; at 11:30 PM, a press conference by BOC Governor McClem and U.S. Weekly Crude Oil Inventories;at 26:00, the U.S. 20-year Treasury auction, and at 27:00, the U.S. Beige Book. We should watch closely for movements in the Canadian dollar immediately following the BOC’s announcement to see if the policy rate is cut by 0.5%.

桜井 慶介

Author: Keisuke Sakurai

He has over 10 years of experience in FX trading. In the financial sector, he has been involved in investment management focused primarily on foreign exchange markets and has experience as an asset management advisor. Drawing on his extensive experience, he specializes in technical and fundamental analysis.

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